Fed Interest Rate Decision March 2026: 98% Probability of No Change at FOMC Meeting

Nearly $283 million has been wagered on a single question about the Federal Reserve's March meeting—and the verdict is nearly unanimous. Prediction market traders on Polymarket are assigning a 98.35% probability that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged when the FOMC convenes March 17-18, 2026.

Key Takeaways

98.35% probability of no rate change at the March 17-18 FOMC meeting, according to $283M in Polymarket trading volume

1.15% chance of a 25 basis point cut; 0.25% chance of a 50+ bps cut—rate cuts are effectively priced out

March 18, 2026 resolution: Market settles based on the FOMC's official statement, with any rate changes rounded to the nearest 25 bps

Key risk: Unexpected inflation data or geopolitical shock could shift odds, but current market implies extreme confidence

If you're expecting Jerome Powell to surprise markets with a rate cut or hike, the betting crowd has some bad news: combined probability of ANY rate change sits at just 1.7%. That's the kind of consensus usually reserved for sure things, not monetary policy decisions.

Current Market State

The Federal Reserve's target federal funds rate currently sits at 4.25-4.50% (as of early 2026), and traders are betting heavily that Jerome Powell and the FOMC will keep it there through the March meeting. The Polymarket event has attracted $282.5 million in total volume with $9.8 million in liquidity—making it one of the most heavily traded Fed prediction markets ever.

Here's the thing: this isn't a close call. The market isn't just leaning toward "no change"—it's practically shouting it. When a prediction market with this much volume shows 98%+ consensus, it usually means one of two things: either the outcome is genuinely certain, or the market is missing something big.

Key Data

The numbers tell a story of extreme market confidence:

Outcome | Probability | Implied Price | Volume
No Change | 98.35% | 98.35¢ | $40.3M
25 bps Decrease | 1.15% | 1.15¢ | $35.7M
25+ bps Increase | 0.35% | 0.35¢ | $95.6M
50+ bps Decrease | 0.25% | 0.25¢ | $110.9M
Total Volume | — | — | $282.5M

That bottom row matters: $282.5 million in trading volume means this isn't a thin market. These odds reflect serious capital conviction, not a handful of speculators.

Odds Movement & Timeline

The "no change" outcome hasn't always been this dominant. Over the past month, the probability has climbed 13.85 percentage points—a significant shift in prediction market terms.

One month ago: ~84.5% probability of no change

One week ago: ~93.5% probability

Today: 98.35% probability

The trajectory is clear: as the March meeting approaches, traders have become increasingly convinced the Fed will stand pat. The 25 bps decrease outcome saw its probability drop 12.7 percentage points over the same period, from roughly 14% to just 1.15%.

What drove this convergence? Likely a combination of persistent inflation readings, Fed commentary signaling a "higher for longer" stance, and the simple reality that March doesn't give the central bank much runway to pivot from its current trajectory.

Analysis

Why are traders so confident the Fed won't budge? Let's break it down.

The "Higher for Longer" Narrative: Since late 2024, the Federal Reserve has consistently signaled that inflation remains above its 2% target and that patience is warranted. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has repeatedly emphasized the need for "more evidence" that inflation is sustainably cooling before cutting rates. This messaging has clearly resonated with prediction market participants.

The Economic Calendar: The March 17-18 meeting comes after the February jobs report and CPI data, but before Q1 GDP numbers are finalized. Unless there's a dramatic economic shock in the next 9 days, the Fed has little incentive to surprise markets with an unscheduled policy shift.

The Rate Cut Math: For a rate cut to happen, the Fed would need to see significant deterioration in labor market conditions or a sharp decline in inflation. Neither scenario has materialized in recent data. The 1.15% probability of a 25 bps cut reflects this reality.

The Rate Hike Scenario: A rate increase is even less likely at 0.35%. The Fed has been explicit that its next move, whenever it comes, will likely be a cut rather than a hike. Raising rates in March would require an inflation surge that hasn't materialized.

If you're looking for uncertainty, you won't find it here. The market has spoken, and it's saying: "Jerome Powell is staying put."

Settlement Criteria

This market resolves based on the FOMC's official statement after the March 17-18, 2026 meeting. Specifically:

"No Change" wins if the target federal funds rate remains at its current level (4.25-4.50%)

"25 bps Decrease" wins if the rate is cut by 12.5-25 basis points

"50+ bps Decrease" wins if the rate is cut by 37.5+ basis points

"25+ bps Increase" wins if the rate is raised by any amount

The resolution source is the official FOMC statement published after the meeting. Any rate change not exactly matching these brackets will be rounded up to the nearest 25 bps.

What to Watch

Even with 98%+ odds, there are still catalysts that could shift the market before March 18:

March 12 CPI Release: If inflation comes in dramatically hot or cold, expect some movement—though probably not enough to flip the odds

March 7 Jobs Report: Already released; showed steady employment growth, reinforcing the "no change" thesis

Fed Speak: Any surprise comments from FOMC members before the meeting blackout period could move the needle

Geopolitical Shock: A major international event (oil supply disruption, financial crisis) could force the Fed's hand

Key threshold: If "no change" probability drops below 90%, that would signal a meaningful shift in market sentiment. As of now, we're nowhere near that.

FAQ

What is the current Federal Reserve interest rate?

The target federal funds rate is currently 4.25-4.50%, set at the December 2024 FOMC meeting. This is the upper bound that the Polymarket market references for resolution.

When is the March 2026 FOMC meeting?

The Federal Open Market Committee meets March 17-18, 2026, with the rate decision and statement typically released at 2:00 PM ET on March 18.

How does the Polymarket Fed decision market work?

Traders buy "Yes" or "No" shares for each outcome (rate cut, no change, rate hike). Each share pays $1 if correct, $0 if wrong. The current share price equals the market's implied probability. For example, "No Change" at 98.35¢ means the market assigns a 98.35% chance of no rate change.

Prediction

Direction: Neutral | Probability: 98% | Horizon: 9 days (March 18, 2026) Answer: No Change

The market has this one right. With inflation still elevated, employment stable, and the Fed's own guidance pointing toward patience, a March rate change would require a black swan event. Our analysis aligns with the 98.35% consensus: Jerome Powell is holding rates steady.

How to Trade This

This prediction trades on Polymarket. Buy "No Change" shares at 98.35¢ (98.35% implied probability) if you agree with the consensus, or bet against it at 1.65¢ if you expect a surprise rate move. Each share pays $1 if correct, $0 if wrong. Sell anytime before resolution.