Federal Reserve March 2026 Rate Decision: 0% Rate Cut Probability as Markets Bet $272M on No Change

Federal-reserve-march-2026 rate decision
Source: Polymarket

How to Trade: This prediction trades on rel="noopener noreferrer"> Shh. heavy - trading profits" data visualization." —

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Trading options

Trading Options:

Option

Probability

Potential Return

Max upside

If you agree

No rate cut

no-change consensus

100% probability of no rate cut

$272.7M

0% probability

Key catalyst: March 7-8 CPI data release could shift expectations if surprisingly low

11-day prediction horizon

March 19, 2026

Key risk: Valuation concerns at 45x P/E could limit upside potential

Key threshold: If cut probability rises above 20%, it would signal a meaningful shift in market expectations.

Figure 1: Federal Reserve Board with dollar signs

Analysis

Why are traders so convinced the Fed will stand pat? Three factors drive this consensus.

First, inflation remains sticky. The the expected in sticky inflation, Core CPI continues to run above the Fed's 2% target. with worrying persistence in services inflation. recent readings have shown worrying persistence in
Third, Fed officials have telegraphed patience. In recent speeches, FOMC members have emphasized a "data-dependent" approach that sounds suspiciously patient. When dealing with rate decisions. The demeanor suggests they might change their stance quickly.
The conclusion? Let's wait and see if a dramatic economic shock—a unexpected shock could force the Fed's hand. In March.
Settlement Criteria

This market resolves based on the Federal Reserve's official announcement following the March 2026 FOMC meeting. resolution.

The "Yes" (Rate cut) resolves if the Fed lowers the target range for the federal funds rate from its current 4.25-4.50% level

The "No" (no rate cut) resolves if the Fed maintains the current target range or raises it

No (no Rate cut)

$0.00

$1.00

100%

0% shares pays $1.00 if correct, $0% shares become $1.00 - 100% probability

$272,730,578

4.25-4.50%

$272 million

$5,000,000

11 days (March 19, 2026)

$0.00

$0%

$0.00 shares.0% probability

Key catalyst: March 7-8 CPI data release could shift expectations if surprisingly low

Key threshold: If cut probability rises above 20%, it would signal a meaningful shift in market expectations.