The largest divergence on today’s board is FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: Polymarket sits at 62% while our model is at 46% (a 16-point gap). Our core view is that traders are overweighting first-leg momentum and underweighting draw mass plus elite comeback dynamics in knockout second legs.
- We are under market on all three events, with the biggest disagreement in Bayern-Real.
- In geopolitics, implementation frictions matter as much as diplomatic headlines.
- In knockout football, game state and draw probability can make “better team” and “win this leg” diverge sharply.
3 Mispricings at a Glance
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Why we disagree: Transfer-to-US custody requires several low-probability operational steps before deadline.
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF
Why we disagree: Market appears to overprice Bayern win vs draw/Real upset paths in a high-variance second leg context.
Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC
Why we disagree: Liverpool home edge is real, but first-leg control and two-goal deficit still structurally favor non-Liverpool outcomes.
How to read this: Polymarket Top Answer and Naly Top Answer show the final answer each side sees as most likely. Max Payout if Correct shows the gross upside from the current quote to the $1 settlement if the selected contract side wins. The horizontal graph still shows where that selected side sits on a 0c to $1 range for Polymarket versus Naly.
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Transfer-to-US custody requires several low-probability operational steps before deadline.
