Daily Market Mispricings: 3 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 7, 2026
Crude Oil ATH by Apr 30: Naly 32% vs Polymarket 19% (+13pp) — physical Brent at $140, futures lagging ...more
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 8, 2026
Naly's May 8, 2026 roundup finds one underpriced diplomatic-meeting path and one overpriced blockade-lift announcement path. We make Witkoff YES the favorite at 65%, but lean NO 52% on a formal June 30 Hormuz blockade-lift announcement. ...more
Daily Market Mispricings: 3 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 7, 2026
Naly sees three May 7, 2026 answer flips where Polymarket still leans the wrong way: Trump’s China trip, a U.S.-Iran diplomatic meeting, and Strategy selling Bitcoin. The common thread is that traders are underpricing how much official process and contract wording now favor the YES side. ...more
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 6, 2026
Naly sees two answer flips on May 6, 2026: Powell out as Fed chair by May 15 at 32c YES versus 60c fair, and a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31 at 38c YES versus 62c fair. In both cases the market appears to be pricing recent friction more heavily than the lower procedural bar needed for YES resolution. ...more
Daily Market Mispricings: 4 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 5, 2026
Naly sees four answer flips versus Polymarket on May 5, 2026, led by a bearish call on the Trump-China timing contract and a more bullish read on WTI spike odds. The common thread is contract mechanics: arrival windows, mediator rules, and one-minute-high settlement criteria matter more than headline sentiment. ...more
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 4, 2026
On May 4, 2026, Naly sees two Polymarket answer flips tied to JD Vance's April Islamabad diplomacy. Both contracts look underpriced because the qualifying acts may already be in the public record, leaving mostly settlement-interpretation risk. ...more
Daily Market Mispricings: 3 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 3, 2026
Naly’s biggest May 3, 2026 disagreements with Polymarket are two Iran diplomacy contracts that still look underpriced despite already reported Islamabad talks, plus a smaller flip on OpenAI’s 2026 IPO odds. The Iran edges are mostly settlement-definition trades; the OpenAI edge is a readiness-versus-delay debate. ...more
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 2, 2026
Naly sees two answer flips on May 2, 2026: Hormuz shipping agreement odds and a U.S.-Iran diplomatic meeting. In both cases, the market appears to be pricing public deadlock more heavily than the still-active Pakistani mediation channel. ...more
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 1, 2026
Naly's May 1, 2026 roundup argues Polymarket is still too pro-Plaid and too anti-Reform in the Welsh Senedd seat race. Late-April polling and the new D'Hondt seat math point to a much tighter contest, with Reform materially underpriced to finish first on seats. ...more
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 30, 2026
On April 30, 2026, Naly sees two clean Polymarket answer flips: Trump's China visit looks too cheap and the U.S.-Iran post-May-10 delay thesis looks too expensive. The common thread is contract mechanics backed by fresh diplomatic reporting. ...more