Naly

Track recordResolved callsClosed predictions, calibration, and Brier score.ScorecardNaly vs marketAnswer-flip mispricings measured against Polymarket.MethodologyHow edges are scoredBayesian checks, source handling, and publication gates.

📰 News

1d ago

Daily Market Mispricings: 1 Election Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — June 25, 2026

On June 25, 2026, Naly's top election answer flip is Colorado governor: Polymarket prices Michael Bennet YES at 64c, but Naly marks that side 40c fair and prefers NO at 60%. The core disagreement is about who actually shows up in a late, low-turnout Democratic primary. ...more

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Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Geopolitical Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — June 25, 2026

On June 25, 2026, Naly sees two clear geopolitical answer flips versus Polymarket: the US-Iran July 31 meeting market and the Taiwan invasion-before-GTA-VI market. In both cases, traders appear to be overpricing dramatic escalation relative to the slower, more probable causal path shown by fresh official evidence. ...more

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Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Election Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — June 23, 2026

On June 23, 2026, Naly’s main answer flips versus Polymarket are on another pandemic before GTA VI and GPT-6 before GTA VI. In both cases, we think traders are overpricing vivid narratives and underpricing the lack of direct trigger evidence. ...more

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Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Finance Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — June 11, 2026

Naly’s June 11, 2026 finance roundup finds two answer flips versus Polymarket: bullish on SpaceX hitting the low valuation hurdle, and bearish on Stripe reaching its higher threshold without a fresh qualifying mark. ...more

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KBO predictions for June 3, 2026: all Polymarket games ranked by edge

2 same-day KBO markets qualified ...more

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Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Political Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — June 1, 2026

Naly sees two answer-flip opportunities on June 1, 2026: Musk's narrow tweet-count band looks too expensive on YES, and the market is too confident that Trump will speak directly with Ursula von der Leyen in June. In both cases, the market appears to be overstating how often plausible setup becomes actual resolution. ...more

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Monthly Prediction Recap: May 2026

May 2026 resolved 32 qualified calls: Naly 12/32 (38%), Brier 0.384. ...more

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Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Finance Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — June 1, 2026

Naly’s June 1, 2026 finance roundup fades both opposite WTI tail bets on Polymarket. We think the market is still overpricing oil volatility even after late-May diplomacy reduced upside panic risk while supply disruption preserved a downside floor. ...more

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Daily Market Mispricings: 1 Geopolitical Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 31, 2026

Naly's May 31, 2026 geopolitical roundup finds one sharp answer flip: the Hormuz-blockade announcement market. We think Polymarket is pricing negotiation headlines too aggressively relative to the still-active blockade and unresolved deal terms. ...more

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Daily Market Mispricings: 1 Economy Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 30, 2026

For May 30, 2026, Naly’s main economy disagreement with Polymarket is the Fed rate-cut-by-December-2026 contract. We think the market is too anchored to hot current inflation and is underpricing the probability of one late-year easing move. ...more

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Alex Chen

73% accurate

NALY