Polymarket Mispricings — Daily Archive
Every daily Polymarket mispricing roundup published by Naly, grouped by month. Each roundup names the events where our 8-step Bayesian model flips away from the market, with calibration and Brier score updated openly.
June 2026(2 roundups)
- Jun 1, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Political Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — June 1, 2026
Naly sees two answer-flip opportunities on June 1, 2026: Musk's narrow tweet-count band looks too expensive on YES, and the market is too confident that Trump will speak directly with Ursula von der Leyen in June. In both cases, the market appears to be overstating how often plausible setup becomes actual resolution.
- Jun 1, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Finance Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — June 1, 2026
Naly’s June 1, 2026 finance roundup fades both opposite WTI tail bets on Polymarket. We think the market is still overpricing oil volatility even after late-May diplomacy reduced upside panic risk while supply disruption preserved a downside floor.
May 2026(31 roundups)
- May 31, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 1 Geopolitical Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 31, 2026
Naly's May 31, 2026 geopolitical roundup finds one sharp answer flip: the Hormuz-blockade announcement market. We think Polymarket is pricing negotiation headlines too aggressively relative to the still-active blockade and unresolved deal terms.
- May 30, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 1 Economy Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 30, 2026
For May 30, 2026, Naly’s main economy disagreement with Polymarket is the Fed rate-cut-by-December-2026 contract. We think the market is too anchored to hot current inflation and is underpricing the probability of one late-year easing move.
- May 30, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 1 Political Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 30, 2026
Naly's May 30, 2026 politics roundup contains one clear answer flip: Trump's 120-139 Truth Social post range. We think Polymarket is underpricing how reachable that band already is given the late-May posting cadence.
- May 29, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Finance Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 29, 2026
Naly sees two real answer flips in finance markets on May 29, 2026: a likely underpriced WTI contract driven by wording mechanics and an overbid SpaceX $2.0T contract driven by narrative compression. The core lesson is that payout conditions still matter more than headlines.
- May 29, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Election Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 29, 2026
Naly sees two election answer flips on May 29, 2026: Karen Bass first-place odds in Los Angeles and Caroline Elliott's BC Conservative leadership odds both look materially overstated by Polymarket. In both cases, we think the market is underpricing how much fragmented fields and contest mechanics can scramble a nominal frontrunner.
- May 27, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Finance Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 27, 2026
On May 27, 2026, Naly's biggest finance answer flips versus Polymarket are Stripe's $165B valuation contract and OpenAI's $800B valuation contract. In both cases, our disagreement comes from fresh valuation evidence already above the thresholds, with benchmark recognition as the main remaining risk.
- May 26, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Election Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 26, 2026
Naly sees two election answer flips on May 26, 2026: Trump’s weekly 'Dumbocrat' contract looks overpriced on YES, while Oh Se-hoon’s Seoul mayoral contract looks underpriced on YES. In both cases, the latest causal evidence points away from Polymarket’s current extremes.
- May 26, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Geopolitical Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 26, 2026
Naly sees two answer-flip geopolitical mispricings on May 26, 2026, both tied to whether a reported western Tehran FIR shutdown already qualifies as a major Iranian airspace closure under Polymarket rules. Our edge comes from rule-fit interpretation and causal evidence, not from a generic escalation narrative.
- May 25, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Political Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 25, 2026
Naly’s May 25, 2026 politics roundup finds two answer-flip disagreements with Polymarket: Trump speaking to Putin in May and Trump speaking to Zelenskyy in May. In both cases, we think the market underprices how often fragile, leader-driven diplomacy forces one more direct call before month-end.
- May 24, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Finance Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 24, 2026
Naly sees two answer flips in finance prediction markets on May 24, 2026: natural gas upside is underpriced, while WTI downside is overpriced. The edge in both cases comes from path dependence, not from repeating the market’s headline narrative.
- May 23, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 1 Geopolitical Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 23, 2026
On May 23, 2026, Naly’s clearest geopolitical answer flip versus Polymarket is the next U.S.-Iran diplomatic meeting venue. We think Pakistan is materially underpriced because the existing mediation channel creates strong venue continuity unless a credible alternative host emerges.
- May 23, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Economy Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 23, 2026
Naly’s May 23, 2026 economy roundup finds two answer-flip mispricings in Fed cut markets. We think Polymarket is extrapolating an energy-led inflation scare too far forward and underpricing the odds of at least one late-2026 rate cut.
- May 22, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Finance Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 22, 2026
Naly sees two answer-flip finance mispricings on May 22, 2026: Anduril above $90B and SpaceX above $2T by June 30. In both cases, the market appears to overpay for momentum while underweighting the short time left for a new valuation mark.
- May 21, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Election Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 21, 2026
Naly’s May 21, 2026 election roundup features two answer flips against Polymarket. The biggest gap is Colombia, where an outright first-round Cepeda win still looks far less likely than the market implies, while Peru’s runoff appears much closer than Sánchez’s low YES price suggests.
- May 21, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Geopolitical Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 21, 2026
On May 21, 2026, Naly’s two clearest geopolitical answer flips are Israel’s airspace and the U.S. Hormuz blockade. In both cases, we think Polymarket is overpaying for a second dramatic turn instead of the more likely path of slower normalization and prolonged leverage.
- May 19, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Finance Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 19, 2026
On May 19, 2026, Naly’s biggest finance disagreements with Polymarket are two Strategy bitcoin-sale contracts. We think the market is confusing newly admitted sale optionality with actual sale necessity, even though the latest filings still show outside fundraising, large cash resources, and continued BTC accumulation.
- May 19, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Election Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 19, 2026
On May 19, 2026, Naly's sharpest election-market fades are Senate passage of a reconciliation bill by May 22 and Choo Kyung-ho in the Daegu mayor race. In both cases, we think Polymarket is underpricing friction: procedural bottlenecks in Washington and candidate-specific volatility in Daegu.
- May 18, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Geopolitical Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 18, 2026
Naly’s May 18, 2026 geopolitical roundup flips both selected June 30 airspace markets from Polymarket’s YES to a higher-probability NO. The core mispricing is that traders appear to be pricing headline tension as if it were already a new formal closure decision.
- May 17, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Finance Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 17, 2026
Naly sees two answer flips in silver on May 17, 2026: Polymarket overprices a May drop to $74 and underprices June settlement inside the $80-$90 band. The key disagreement is timing: after a sharp unwind, silver now looks closer to consolidation than to another immediate extreme.
- May 16, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Geopolitical Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 16, 2026
Naly’s May 16, 2026 geopolitical roundup flips two Polymarket calls to YES: China’s Boeing purchase announcement and rare-earth export relief. The core thesis is that traders are overweighting headline-form ambiguity even as the underlying policy and commercial substance is already moving.
- May 11, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 3 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 11, 2026
Naly’s May 11, 2026 board centers on three answer flips: Powell-out-by-May-15 and another U.S.-Iran meeting both look more likely than Polymarket suggests, while a MicroStrategy Bitcoin sale still looks less likely than the market price implies.
- May 10, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 10, 2026
Naly's May 10, 2026 roundup makes two Iran-linked answer flips against Polymarket: we fade Pakistan as the next US-Iran venue and lean YES on an Iranian asset-unfreeze agreement by May 31. The edge comes from mediator drift toward Qatar and from the lower bar of agreement language versus actual cash transfer.
- May 9, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 9, 2026
On May 9, 2026, Naly sees two core Polymarket answer flips tied to the Strait of Hormuz: WTI hitting $85 in May and Trump formally lifting the U.S. blockade by June 30. In both cases, the market appears to be pricing headline progress faster than the physical oil market and formal U.S. policy can normalize.
- May 8, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 8, 2026
Naly's May 8, 2026 roundup finds one underpriced diplomatic-meeting path and one overpriced blockade-lift announcement path. We make Witkoff YES the favorite at 65%, but lean NO 52% on a formal June 30 Hormuz blockade-lift announcement.
- May 7, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 3 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 7, 2026
Naly sees three May 7, 2026 answer flips where Polymarket still leans the wrong way: Trump’s China trip, a U.S.-Iran diplomatic meeting, and Strategy selling Bitcoin. The common thread is that traders are underpricing how much official process and contract wording now favor the YES side.
- May 6, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 6, 2026
Naly sees two answer flips on May 6, 2026: Powell out as Fed chair by May 15 at 32c YES versus 60c fair, and a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31 at 38c YES versus 62c fair. In both cases the market appears to be pricing recent friction more heavily than the lower procedural bar needed for YES resolution.
- May 5, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 4 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 5, 2026
Naly sees four answer flips versus Polymarket on May 5, 2026, led by a bearish call on the Trump-China timing contract and a more bullish read on WTI spike odds. The common thread is contract mechanics: arrival windows, mediator rules, and one-minute-high settlement criteria matter more than headline sentiment.
- May 4, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 4, 2026
On May 4, 2026, Naly sees two Polymarket answer flips tied to JD Vance's April Islamabad diplomacy. Both contracts look underpriced because the qualifying acts may already be in the public record, leaving mostly settlement-interpretation risk.
- May 3, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 3 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 3, 2026
Naly’s biggest May 3, 2026 disagreements with Polymarket are two Iran diplomacy contracts that still look underpriced despite already reported Islamabad talks, plus a smaller flip on OpenAI’s 2026 IPO odds. The Iran edges are mostly settlement-definition trades; the OpenAI edge is a readiness-versus-delay debate.
- May 2, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 2, 2026
Naly sees two answer flips on May 2, 2026: Hormuz shipping agreement odds and a U.S.-Iran diplomatic meeting. In both cases, the market appears to be pricing public deadlock more heavily than the still-active Pakistani mediation channel.
- May 1, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 1, 2026
Naly's May 1, 2026 roundup argues Polymarket is still too pro-Plaid and too anti-Reform in the Welsh Senedd seat race. Late-April polling and the new D'Hondt seat math point to a much tighter contest, with Reform materially underpriced to finish first on seats.
April 2026(25 roundups)
- Apr 30, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 30, 2026
On April 30, 2026, Naly sees two clean Polymarket answer flips: Trump's China visit looks too cheap and the U.S.-Iran post-May-10 delay thesis looks too expensive. The common thread is contract mechanics backed by fresh diplomatic reporting.
- Apr 29, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 29, 2026
Naly sees Polymarket overpricing a near-term Hormuz blockade-lift announcement and underpricing Karen Bass' path through a fragmented Los Angeles mayoral field. In both cases, the market looks more reactive to headlines than to the institutional mechanics that actually govern resolution.
- Apr 28, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 28, 2026
Naly's April 28, 2026 roundup argues that Polymarket is still too bullish on a BJP plurality in West Bengal and too cautious on AITC/TMC. The cleanest edge comes from the view that TMC's statewide map and second-phase geography still outweigh the market's coin-flip framing.
- Apr 27, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 3 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 27, 2026
Three April 27, 2026 mispricings stand out: Dillon Brooks and Jaden McDaniels are both priced too cheaply to clear modest point lines, while the Hormuz blockade market still looks too optimistic about a near-term Trump lift announcement. The common error is confusing noisy headlines with the actual drivers of usage, leverage, and contract resolution.
- Apr 26, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 26, 2026
Naly's April 26, 2026 roundup flips two South Korea mayoral Polymarket contracts to NO. In both Daegu and Busan, we think traders are paying headline prices before local campaign mechanics justify them.
- Apr 25, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 25, 2026
Naly flips both selected Iran-linked Polymarket calls for April 25, 2026. We think the diplomacy market is underpricing mediated in-person talks, while the blockade-lift market is overpricing a quick policy announcement before a broader deal is actually in place.
- Apr 24, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 4 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 24, 2026
Naly sees four April 24, 2026 answer flips versus Polymarket, led by Iran diplomacy and leadership-change markets that look already satisfied and WTI thresholds that official EIA data already cleared. The common thread is stale interpretation of what has already happened, not a new speculative catalyst.
- Apr 21, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 4 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 21, 2026
On April 21, 2026, Naly sees four answer flip mispricings led by WTI threshold markets that appear to ignore April's earlier active month spike. We also fade Steve Hilton's apparent top two safety and the odds of an explicit U.S. announcement lifting the Hormuz blockade by May 31.
- Apr 21, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 4 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 20, 2026
Naly sees four answer flips in the April 20 basket, led by an underpriced U.S.-Iran meeting contract and two path-dependent WTI highs that appear more likely to have already printed than the market implied. The outlier on the other side is Iranian oil-sanction relief, where fresh official signals point toward escalation rather than concession.
- Apr 19, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 4 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 19, 2026
Naly's largest April 19 edges are still the April WTI trigger contracts, where fresh reporting suggests the thresholds were already hit. In West Bengal, the edge is smaller but still points toward AITC/TMC retaining the seat lead over BJP.
- Apr 18, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 5 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 18, 2026
Our biggest geopolitical disagreement is the U.S.-Iran ceasefire extension market, where broad diplomacy headlines look stronger than the odds of a formal extension by deadline. In crypto, the opposite is true: Bitcoin and Ethereum look too cheap on YES because both assets are already close to their trigger levels and only need one more risk-on push.
- Apr 17, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 18, 2026
Naly sees two answer flips in the U.S.-Iran complex: a diplomatic-meeting contract that looks too cheap on YES and a permanent-peace contract that still looks too expensive on YES. The core disagreement is about thresholds and timing, not whether diplomacy is active.
- Apr 17, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 3 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 17, 2026
Naly sees three answer flips against Polymarket on April 17, 2026. The biggest gap is Keiko Fujimori, while the two Iran contracts still look too optimistic about near-term U.S. concessions.
- Apr 15, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 4 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 16, 2026
Today’s biggest edge is the U.S.-Iran diplomacy contract, where we think deadline-driven mediation makes another official meeting materially more likely than the market implies. We also see both April WTI downside markets and Virginia’s referendum market as overpriced on the YES side because traders are extrapolating recent headlines too aggressively.
- Apr 15, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 3 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 15, 2026
Naly sees three notable April 15 mispricings on Polymarket, led by Kevin Warsh's Fed confirmation timeline, followed by Trump's Iran announcement market and Ethereum's path to $2,600. In each case, the market appears to be pricing the narrative more aggressively than the actual resolution path.
- Apr 14, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 5 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 15, 2026
Naly's April 15 mispricing roundup finds the clearest edge in WTI crude's $110 April contract, where public reporting suggests the threshold may already have been hit. Elsewhere, we think markets are too optimistic on Iran-related diplomatic breakthroughs and too aggressive on Bitcoin reaching $80,000 this month.
- Apr 13, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 5 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 14, 2026
Naly's April 14 roundup finds the largest apparent Polymarket mispricing in the May 15 Iran conflict-end contract, with oil downside also looking too optimistic while Bitcoin's $75,000 touch appears underpriced. The common thread is path dependence: markets are still reacting to headlines, while the harder calendar and catalyst math points elsewhere.
- Apr 12, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 5 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 13, 2026
Naly sees five current prediction-market contracts as overpriced on the dramatic side of the narrative, with the biggest gap in the April 15 Iran conflict-end market. The common theme is that traders are paying up for possibility while underweighting timing, operational reality, and path dependence.
- Apr 12, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 5 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 12, 2026
Naly's April 12 roundup flags five contracts where current Polymarket pricing still appears off versus the latest causal evidence. The biggest gap is Iran's uranium stockpile market, while both April WTI tail contracts and the UAE escalation market also look misaligned with the most likely path to resolution.
- Apr 11, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 5 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 11, 2026
Today’s largest disagreement is in U.S. bank earnings beat contracts, where threshold mechanics look underpriced by the market. We also see selective upside in sports and downside in Hungary seat outcomes versus current Polymarket odds.
- Apr 11, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 3 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 7, 2026
Archived April 7 mispricing roundup showing market price, Naly probability, max payout if correct, fair-value edge, and resolved outcomes for crude oil, the S&P 500 open, and Bitcoin $72,000.
- Apr 10, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 4 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 10, 2026
Naly identifies four April 10 direction markets where we disagree with Polymarket, led by a 34-point ETH gap. Our view is that crypto and NVDA are priced too pessimistically, while EWY appears too optimistic after a crowded run.
- Apr 9, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 3 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 9, 2026
Naly finds three April 9 mispricings where Polymarket appears too optimistic relative to causal fundamentals. The largest gap is Bayern vs Real, where second-leg game-state and draw dynamics likely reduce Bayern’s true win probability.
- Apr 9, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 5 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 9, 2026
Naly identifies five April 9, 2026 prediction-market setups where current pricing appears to underweight causal evidence and timing constraints. The largest gaps are in WTI direction and Qatar LNG timing, with additional edges in SPX open odds, Powell wording risk, and Bitcoin implied volatility.
- Apr 9, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 4 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 9, 2026
The largest gap today is **US bank failure by April 30**: Polymarket sits near **16%**, while our estimate is **72%** (a **56-point divergence**). That spread is large enough to matter because the dis...