Polymarket Mispricings — Daily Archive
Every daily Polymarket mispricing roundup published by Naly, grouped by month. Each roundup names the events where our 8-step Bayesian model flips away from the market, with calibration and Brier score updated openly.
April 2026(18 roundups)
- Apr 21, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 4 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 21, 2026
On April 21, 2026, Naly sees four answer flip mispricings led by WTI threshold markets that appear to ignore April's earlier active month spike. We also fade Steve Hilton's apparent top two safety and the odds of an explicit U.S. announcement lifting the Hormuz blockade by May 31.
- Apr 21, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 4 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 20, 2026
Naly sees four answer flips in the April 20 basket, led by an underpriced U.S.-Iran meeting contract and two path-dependent WTI highs that appear more likely to have already printed than the market implied. The outlier on the other side is Iranian oil-sanction relief, where fresh official signals point toward escalation rather than concession.
- Apr 19, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 4 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 19, 2026
Naly's largest April 19 edges are still the April WTI trigger contracts, where fresh reporting suggests the thresholds were already hit. In West Bengal, the edge is smaller but still points toward AITC/TMC retaining the seat lead over BJP.
- Apr 18, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 5 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 18, 2026
Our biggest geopolitical disagreement is the U.S.-Iran ceasefire extension market, where broad diplomacy headlines look stronger than the odds of a formal extension by deadline. In crypto, the opposite is true: Bitcoin and Ethereum look too cheap on YES because both assets are already close to their trigger levels and only need one more risk-on push.
- Apr 17, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 18, 2026
Naly sees two answer flips in the U.S.-Iran complex: a diplomatic-meeting contract that looks too cheap on YES and a permanent-peace contract that still looks too expensive on YES. The core disagreement is about thresholds and timing, not whether diplomacy is active.
- Apr 17, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 3 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 17, 2026
Naly sees three answer flips against Polymarket on April 17, 2026. The biggest gap is Keiko Fujimori, while the two Iran contracts still look too optimistic about near-term U.S. concessions.
- Apr 15, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 4 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 16, 2026
Today’s biggest edge is the U.S.-Iran diplomacy contract, where we think deadline-driven mediation makes another official meeting materially more likely than the market implies. We also see both April WTI downside markets and Virginia’s referendum market as overpriced on the YES side because traders are extrapolating recent headlines too aggressively.
- Apr 15, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 3 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 15, 2026
Naly sees three notable April 15 mispricings on Polymarket, led by Kevin Warsh's Fed confirmation timeline, followed by Trump's Iran announcement market and Ethereum's path to $2,600. In each case, the market appears to be pricing the narrative more aggressively than the actual resolution path.
- Apr 14, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 5 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 15, 2026
Naly's April 15 mispricing roundup finds the clearest edge in WTI crude's $110 April contract, where public reporting suggests the threshold may already have been hit. Elsewhere, we think markets are too optimistic on Iran-related diplomatic breakthroughs and too aggressive on Bitcoin reaching $80,000 this month.
- Apr 13, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 5 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 14, 2026
Naly's April 14 roundup finds the largest apparent Polymarket mispricing in the May 15 Iran conflict-end contract, with oil downside also looking too optimistic while Bitcoin's $75,000 touch appears underpriced. The common thread is path dependence: markets are still reacting to headlines, while the harder calendar and catalyst math points elsewhere.
- Apr 12, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 5 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 13, 2026
Naly sees five current prediction-market contracts as overpriced on the dramatic side of the narrative, with the biggest gap in the April 15 Iran conflict-end market. The common theme is that traders are paying up for possibility while underweighting timing, operational reality, and path dependence.
- Apr 12, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 5 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 12, 2026
Naly's April 12 roundup flags five contracts where current Polymarket pricing still appears off versus the latest causal evidence. The biggest gap is Iran's uranium stockpile market, while both April WTI tail contracts and the UAE escalation market also look misaligned with the most likely path to resolution.
- Apr 11, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 5 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 11, 2026
Today’s largest disagreement is in U.S. bank earnings beat contracts, where threshold mechanics look underpriced by the market. We also see selective upside in sports and downside in Hungary seat outcomes versus current Polymarket odds.
- Apr 11, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 3 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 7, 2026
Archived April 7 mispricing roundup showing market price, Naly probability, max payout if correct, fair-value edge, and resolved outcomes for crude oil, the S&P 500 open, and Bitcoin $72,000.
- Apr 10, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 4 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 10, 2026
Naly identifies four April 10 direction markets where we disagree with Polymarket, led by a 34-point ETH gap. Our view is that crypto and NVDA are priced too pessimistically, while EWY appears too optimistic after a crowded run.
- Apr 9, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 3 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 9, 2026
Naly finds three April 9 mispricings where Polymarket appears too optimistic relative to causal fundamentals. The largest gap is Bayern vs Real, where second-leg game-state and draw dynamics likely reduce Bayern’s true win probability.
- Apr 9, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 5 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 9, 2026
Naly identifies five April 9, 2026 prediction-market setups where current pricing appears to underweight causal evidence and timing constraints. The largest gaps are in WTI direction and Qatar LNG timing, with additional edges in SPX open odds, Powell wording risk, and Bitcoin implied volatility.
- Apr 9, 2026
Daily Market Mispricings: 4 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 9, 2026
The largest gap today is **US bank failure by April 30**: Polymarket sits near **16%**, while our estimate is **72%** (a **56-point divergence**). That spread is large enough to matter because the dis...