Daily Market Mispricings: 4 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 21, 2026

Published 1mo agoUpdated 1mo ago

TL;DROn April 21, 2026, Naly's biggest disagreements are in oil: we think WTI hitting $95 in April is worth 98c YES versus Polymarket's 49c, and WTI hitting $100 is worth 88c YES versus 34c. The sharpest reason is path dependence: these contracts care about any qualifying April high, and the blockade shock appears to have already printed above both thresholds.

As of April 21, 2026, all four contracts below remain open. We are looking for answer flips, not cosmetic confidence tweaks: a 49c YES quote is both the current entry price and roughly the market implied probability on a $1 binary contract, while Naly's fair price is the cents value implied by our own probability estimate on that same side.

Key Takeaways

The two WTI contracts look mispriced because they resolve on any qualifying April high in active month futures, and public reporting already points to prints above both $95 and $100.
Steve Hilton is being priced like a near lock to reach California's top two, but recent polling still shows a crowded cluster with large undecided blocs and heavy Democratic spending.
The Hormuz blockade market is narrower than the headlines: resumed talks or partial de-escalation are not enough unless the United States explicitly announces that the blockade is lifted.
Each idea below is an answer flip, not a same side confidence haircut.

4 Mispricings at a Glance

Event Snapshot

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in April?

YES Resolves April 30, 2026 Open as of April 21, 2026 95/100 confidence

Polymarket Top Answer NO 51%

Naly Top Answer YES 98%

Max Payout if Correct +51c

0c 50c $1.00

Polymarket Naly

Why we disagree: The market appears to be anchoring to today's lower oil price instead of the earlier qualifying April high.

Event Snapshot

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?

YES Resolves April 30, 2026 Open as of April 21, 2026 84/100 confidence

Polymarket Top Answer NO 66%

Naly Top Answer YES 88%

Max Payout if Correct +66c

0c 50c $1.00

Polymarket Naly

Why we disagree: The market is underweighting the active month spike above $100 and overweighting the later retracement.

Event Snapshot

Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

YES Resolves June 2, 2026 Open as of April 21, 2026 80/100 confidence

Polymarket Top Answer YES 81%

Naly Top Answer NO 55%

Max Payout if Correct +19c

0c 50c $1.00

Polymarket Naly

Why we disagree: Traders are treating a narrow polling lead as a locked top two berth in a still fragmented field.

Event Snapshot

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

YES Resolves May 31, 2026 Open as of April 21, 2026 70/100 confidence

Polymarket Top Answer YES 82%

Naly Top Answer NO 55%

Max Payout if Correct +18c

0c 50c $1.00

Polymarket Naly

Why we disagree: The market is pricing de-escalation as if it automatically produces an explicit U.S. blockade lift announcement.

How to read this: Polymarket Top Answer and Naly Top Answer show the final answer each side sees as most likely. Max Payout if Correct shows the gross upside from the current quote to the $1 settlement if the selected contract side wins. The horizontal graph still shows where that selected side sits on a 0c to $1 range for Polymarket versus Naly.

Event 1

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in April?

MarketsContract · YESResolves April 30, 2026Open as of April 21, 202695/100 confidence

+51c

Max Payout if Correct

Polymarket Top Answer NO 51%

Naly Top Answer YES 98%

Trade on Polymarket →

The market appears to be anchoring to today's lower oil price instead of the earlier qualifying April high.

Causal Chain

Cause Cause bullet: The April 13, 2026 blockade shock forced a violent repricing in active month WTI futures.

↓

Effect Effect bullet: Because this contract is path dependent and keys off an April high rather than today's quote, the spike matters more than the later retracement.

↓

Projection Projection bullet: Unless the resolver excludes the widely reported active month print on a technicality, this contract should finish YES.

Key Factors

	Factor
▲	The contract resolves on any qualifying April one minute high in active month WTI futures, which makes intraday extremes decisive.
▲	ICIS reported WTI May at $104.94 on April 13, 2026, directly relevant because May was the active month during that session.
▲	Reuters later reported WTI at $99.10 on April 13, 2026, which still clears the $95 threshold even after prices had faded from the session peak.
▲	AP reported U.S. benchmark crude at $86.63 on April 21, 2026, a lower current quote that can mislead traders even though it does not undo an earlier qualifying high.
▼	The residual risk is mostly contract mechanics: whether the qualifying Pyth or CME minute data aligns cleanly with the public reporting.

Bayesian Calculation

Base rate: 49% YES from the market.

Positive update: Public reporting on April 13, 2026 already put the active month contract well above $95.

Negative update: Resolution depends on a qualifying one minute high in the active month, not on headline spot commentary.

Naly estimate: 98% YES, or 98c fair value on the YES side.

Alternative explanation: The market may be treating this like a closing price question or waiting for contract level data confirmation before moving to near certainty. That caution is directionally sensible, but it looks too large once the one touch high rule is understood.

What Would Make Us Wrong

We are wrong if the public reports referenced a different benchmark than the active month contract used for settlement, or if the qualifying minute data never actually cleared $95 despite the broad reporting. That is possible, but it is now the narrow tail risk, not the base case.

Fresh Checks

Event 2

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?

MarketsContract · YESResolves April 30, 2026Open as of April 21, 202684/100 confidence

+66c

Max Payout if Correct

Polymarket Top Answer NO 66%

Naly Top Answer YES 88%

Trade on Polymarket →

The market is underweighting the active month spike above $100 and overweighting the later retracement.

Causal Chain

Cause Cause bullet: The same blockade shock that lifted oil above $95 also appears to have carried active month WTI through the tougher $100 threshold.

↓

Effect Effect bullet: Traders seem to be anchoring to the later fade in oil rather than to the earlier intraday spike that the contract actually settles on.

↓

Projection Projection bullet: If the active month high is confirmed the way public reporting suggests, the market should reprice much closer to YES.

Key Factors

	Factor
▲	ICIS reported WTI May at $104.94 at 03:20 GMT on April 13, 2026, which is directly on point for a contract tied to active month highs.
▲	Reuters later showed WTI at $99.10 after a retracement and noted the contract had been up by more than $9 earlier in the same session.
▲	AP's April 21, 2026 report showed front end oil prices well below the spike, a setup that can trick traders into forgetting this is a one touch high market.
▲	The active month wording matters: this is not a spot crude headline contest, it is a specific futures path question.
▼	Technical settlement risk remains, but the public evidence is already much stronger than a 34c YES price implies.

Bayesian Calculation

Base rate: 34% YES from the market.

Positive update: A directly relevant active month print above $100 was reported on April 13, 2026.

Negative update: This threshold needs the qualifying minute high, so feed specific confirmation matters more than it does for the $95 contract.

Naly estimate: 88% YES, or 88c fair value on the YES side.

Alternative explanation: The market may be discounting because ICIS is not itself the resolution source and because later prices retraced hard. That explains some caution, but not a price that still treats NO as the clear favorite.

What Would Make Us Wrong

We are wrong if the reported $104.94 print does not correspond to the exact qualifying active month one minute high used in settlement, or if contract roll timing creates a mismatch. In that case the market's discount would have been justified.

Fresh Checks

Event 3

Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

PoliticsContract · YESResolves June 2, 2026Open as of April 21, 202680/100 confidence

+19c

Max Payout if Correct

Polymarket Top Answer YES 81%

Naly Top Answer NO 55%

Trade on Polymarket →

Traders are treating a narrow polling lead as a locked top two berth in a still fragmented field.

Causal Chain

Cause Cause bullet: Traders are extrapolating Hilton's narrow polling lead and Trump's endorsement into a near locked runoff berth.

↓

Effect Effect bullet: In a top two primary, a candidate sitting in the high teens with several rivals close behind is far less secure than an 81% quote implies.

↓

Projection Projection bullet: If one Democrat consolidates late or Steyer's spending buys even a modest lift, Hilton can move from first to third quickly.

Key Factors

	Factor
▲	Emerson's April 14-15, 2026 poll put Hilton at 17%, with Bianco and Steyer at 14%, Becerra and Porter at 10%, and 23% undecided.
▲	DDHQ's public polling average and recent individual polls still show a volatile cluster, not a runaway favorite who has already locked one of the two slots.
▲	AP reported Trump's endorsement helps consolidate one Republican lane, but it does not remove Bianco from the ballot or erase California's anti Trump ceiling.
▲	AP also reported that Steyer has booked more than $115 million in ads while Democrats are actively trying to avoid a shutout, so Hilton's opposition is not static.
▲	The right question is not whether Hilton is currently leading; it is how often a 17% candidate survives a multi way scramble with large undecided blocs. That number is much closer to a coin flip than to 81%.

Bayesian Calculation

Base rate: 81% YES from the market.

Positive update: Hilton leads some recent polls and Trump's endorsement likely consolidates part of the Republican vote.

Negative update: He is still only in the high teens, Bianco remains live, and multiple Democrats retain plausible top two paths.

Naly estimate: 45% YES, or 45c fair value on the YES side.

Alternative explanation: A trader could argue that all Hilton needs is one slot, not a majority, and that Democratic fragmentation will keep helping him. That is the best bullish case, but it assumes the field freezes quickly instead of continuing to reshuffle as undecided voters and late money move.

What Would Make Us Wrong

We are wrong if Bianco fades sharply and no Democrat consolidates enough to challenge for the second slot. In that case Hilton's current lead could harden into a genuine top two favorite.

Fresh Checks

Event 4

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

ForecastContract · YESResolves May 31, 2026Open as of April 21, 202670/100 confidence

+18c

Max Payout if Correct

Polymarket Top Answer YES 82%

Naly Top Answer NO 55%

Trade on Polymarket →

The market is pricing de-escalation as if it automatically produces an explicit U.S. blockade lift announcement.

Causal Chain

Cause Cause bullet: Traders are extrapolating ceasefire diplomacy into a quick blockade lift announcement.

↓

Effect Effect bullet: Trump's leverage comes from keeping the blockade in place until a broader deal is reached, and the contract only resolves YES on explicit U.S. wording.

↓

Projection Projection bullet: A May 31, 2026 lift remains plausible, but it is far from the near certainty implied by an 82c YES price.

Key Factors

	Factor
▲	Reuters reported on April 20, 2026 that Iran was only positively reviewing talks, no final decision had been made, and Trump said the blockade was going to remain.
▼	AP reported on April 19, 2026 that the U.S. seized an Iranian flagged cargo ship, putting the ceasefire under new strain and raising uncertainty around talks.
▲	AP reported on April 18, 2026 that Iran reclosed the strait and that Trump said the U.S. blockade would remain in full force until a deal was reached.
▲	Axios reported on April 17, 2026 that Trump sounded optimistic about a deal but still said he would not lift the blockade before a deal is reached.
▲	Reuters and Bloomberg reporting cited by The Jerusalem Post on April 16, 2026 said a full peace deal could take around six months, though a temporary memorandum remained possible.

Bayesian Calculation

Base rate: 82% YES from the market.

Positive update: Pakistan is still trying to broker talks, and a face saving memorandum could produce an announcement before May 31, 2026.

Negative update: The blockade remains Trump's main bargaining lever, talks are not locked in, and the contract requires an explicit announcement rather than mere de facto easing.

Naly estimate: 45% YES, or 45c fair value on the YES side.

Alternative explanation: The best case for YES is political theater: the White House could decide that even a narrow interim deal is good enough to announce blockade relief and claim a win. That path exists, which is why we are not dramatically below 50%.

What Would Make Us Wrong

We are wrong if Islamabad talks produce a narrow memorandum with a scheduled blockade end and Trump chooses to trumpet it quickly. Because the contract is keyed to the announcement itself, even an incomplete substantive deal could still resolve YES if the language is explicit enough.

Fresh Checks

Conclusion

The next catalysts are straightforward. For oil, the only thing that really matters is whether contract level confirmation closes the gap between the public April 13, 2026 prints and trader pricing. For California, watch the April 22, 2026 debate, late April statewide polling, and whether Democratic money starts consolidating behind one lane. For Hormuz, watch whether Pakistan can turn ceasefire management into an explicit White House blockade lift statement rather than another round of conditional diplomacy.

Methodology

Naly starts with the market prior, then adjusts for contract specific resolution rules, fresh evidence, and event structure. We publish resolved outcomes and calibration work on our track record, because the point of a mispricing call is not just to be loud but to be measurable.

Disclaimer

This article reflects Naly's probabilistic estimates as of April 21, 2026. It is for informational purposes only, not investment, legal, or political advice, and prediction market prices can move sharply as new information arrives.

Daily Market Mispricings: 4 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 21, 2026

Published 1mo agoUpdated 1mo ago

Key Takeaways

The two WTI contracts look mispriced because they resolve on any qualifying April high in active month futures, and public reporting already points to prints above both $95 and $100.
Steve Hilton is being priced like a near lock to reach California's top two, but recent polling still shows a crowded cluster with large undecided blocs and heavy Democratic spending.
The Hormuz blockade market is narrower than the headlines: resumed talks or partial de-escalation are not enough unless the United States explicitly announces that the blockade is lifted.
Each idea below is an answer flip, not a same side confidence haircut.

4 Mispricings at a Glance

Event Snapshot

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in April?

YES Resolves April 30, 2026 Open as of April 21, 2026 95/100 confidence

Polymarket Top Answer NO 51%

Naly Top Answer YES 98%

Max Payout if Correct +51c

0c 50c $1.00

Polymarket Naly

Why we disagree: The market appears to be anchoring to today's lower oil price instead of the earlier qualifying April high.

Event Snapshot

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?

YES Resolves April 30, 2026 Open as of April 21, 2026 84/100 confidence

Polymarket Top Answer NO 66%

Naly Top Answer YES 88%

Max Payout if Correct +66c

0c 50c $1.00

Polymarket Naly

Why we disagree: The market is underweighting the active month spike above $100 and overweighting the later retracement.

Event Snapshot

Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

YES Resolves June 2, 2026 Open as of April 21, 2026 80/100 confidence

Polymarket Top Answer YES 81%

Naly Top Answer NO 55%

Max Payout if Correct +19c

0c 50c $1.00

Polymarket Naly

Why we disagree: Traders are treating a narrow polling lead as a locked top two berth in a still fragmented field.

Event Snapshot

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

YES Resolves May 31, 2026 Open as of April 21, 2026 70/100 confidence

Polymarket Top Answer YES 82%

Naly Top Answer NO 55%

Max Payout if Correct +18c

0c 50c $1.00

Polymarket Naly

Why we disagree: The market is pricing de-escalation as if it automatically produces an explicit U.S. blockade lift announcement.

Event 1

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in April?

MarketsContract · YESResolves April 30, 2026Open as of April 21, 202695/100 confidence

+51c

Max Payout if Correct

Polymarket Top Answer NO 51%

Naly Top Answer YES 98%

Trade on Polymarket →

The market appears to be anchoring to today's lower oil price instead of the earlier qualifying April high.

Causal Chain

Cause Cause bullet: The April 13, 2026 blockade shock forced a violent repricing in active month WTI futures.

↓

Effect Effect bullet: Because this contract is path dependent and keys off an April high rather than today's quote, the spike matters more than the later retracement.

↓

Projection Projection bullet: Unless the resolver excludes the widely reported active month print on a technicality, this contract should finish YES.

Key Factors

	Factor
▲	The contract resolves on any qualifying April one minute high in active month WTI futures, which makes intraday extremes decisive.
▲	ICIS reported WTI May at $104.94 on April 13, 2026, directly relevant because May was the active month during that session.
▲	Reuters later reported WTI at $99.10 on April 13, 2026, which still clears the $95 threshold even after prices had faded from the session peak.
▲	AP reported U.S. benchmark crude at $86.63 on April 21, 2026, a lower current quote that can mislead traders even though it does not undo an earlier qualifying high.
▼	The residual risk is mostly contract mechanics: whether the qualifying Pyth or CME minute data aligns cleanly with the public reporting.

Bayesian Calculation

Base rate: 49% YES from the market.

Positive update: Public reporting on April 13, 2026 already put the active month contract well above $95.

Negative update: Resolution depends on a qualifying one minute high in the active month, not on headline spot commentary.

Naly estimate: 98% YES, or 98c fair value on the YES side.

What Would Make Us Wrong

Fresh Checks

Event 2

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?

MarketsContract · YESResolves April 30, 2026Open as of April 21, 202684/100 confidence

+66c

Max Payout if Correct

Polymarket Top Answer NO 66%

Naly Top Answer YES 88%

Trade on Polymarket →

The market is underweighting the active month spike above $100 and overweighting the later retracement.

Causal Chain

Cause Cause bullet: The same blockade shock that lifted oil above $95 also appears to have carried active month WTI through the tougher $100 threshold.

↓

Effect Effect bullet: Traders seem to be anchoring to the later fade in oil rather than to the earlier intraday spike that the contract actually settles on.

↓

Projection Projection bullet: If the active month high is confirmed the way public reporting suggests, the market should reprice much closer to YES.

Key Factors

	Factor
▲	ICIS reported WTI May at $104.94 at 03:20 GMT on April 13, 2026, which is directly on point for a contract tied to active month highs.
▲	Reuters later showed WTI at $99.10 after a retracement and noted the contract had been up by more than $9 earlier in the same session.
▲	AP's April 21, 2026 report showed front end oil prices well below the spike, a setup that can trick traders into forgetting this is a one touch high market.
▲	The active month wording matters: this is not a spot crude headline contest, it is a specific futures path question.
▼	Technical settlement risk remains, but the public evidence is already much stronger than a 34c YES price implies.

Bayesian Calculation

Base rate: 34% YES from the market.

Positive update: A directly relevant active month print above $100 was reported on April 13, 2026.

Negative update: This threshold needs the qualifying minute high, so feed specific confirmation matters more than it does for the $95 contract.

Naly estimate: 88% YES, or 88c fair value on the YES side.

What Would Make Us Wrong

Fresh Checks

Event 3

Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

PoliticsContract · YESResolves June 2, 2026Open as of April 21, 202680/100 confidence

+19c

Max Payout if Correct

Polymarket Top Answer YES 81%

Naly Top Answer NO 55%

Trade on Polymarket →

Traders are treating a narrow polling lead as a locked top two berth in a still fragmented field.

Causal Chain

Cause Cause bullet: Traders are extrapolating Hilton's narrow polling lead and Trump's endorsement into a near locked runoff berth.

↓

Effect Effect bullet: In a top two primary, a candidate sitting in the high teens with several rivals close behind is far less secure than an 81% quote implies.

↓

Projection Projection bullet: If one Democrat consolidates late or Steyer's spending buys even a modest lift, Hilton can move from first to third quickly.

Key Factors

	Factor
▲	Emerson's April 14-15, 2026 poll put Hilton at 17%, with Bianco and Steyer at 14%, Becerra and Porter at 10%, and 23% undecided.
▲	DDHQ's public polling average and recent individual polls still show a volatile cluster, not a runaway favorite who has already locked one of the two slots.
▲	AP reported Trump's endorsement helps consolidate one Republican lane, but it does not remove Bianco from the ballot or erase California's anti Trump ceiling.
▲	AP also reported that Steyer has booked more than $115 million in ads while Democrats are actively trying to avoid a shutout, so Hilton's opposition is not static.
▲	The right question is not whether Hilton is currently leading; it is how often a 17% candidate survives a multi way scramble with large undecided blocs. That number is much closer to a coin flip than to 81%.

Bayesian Calculation

Base rate: 81% YES from the market.

Positive update: Hilton leads some recent polls and Trump's endorsement likely consolidates part of the Republican vote.

Negative update: He is still only in the high teens, Bianco remains live, and multiple Democrats retain plausible top two paths.

Naly estimate: 45% YES, or 45c fair value on the YES side.

What Would Make Us Wrong

We are wrong if Bianco fades sharply and no Democrat consolidates enough to challenge for the second slot. In that case Hilton's current lead could harden into a genuine top two favorite.

Fresh Checks

Event 4

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

ForecastContract · YESResolves May 31, 2026Open as of April 21, 202670/100 confidence

+18c

Max Payout if Correct

Polymarket Top Answer YES 82%

Naly Top Answer NO 55%

Trade on Polymarket →

The market is pricing de-escalation as if it automatically produces an explicit U.S. blockade lift announcement.

Causal Chain

Cause Cause bullet: Traders are extrapolating ceasefire diplomacy into a quick blockade lift announcement.

↓

Effect Effect bullet: Trump's leverage comes from keeping the blockade in place until a broader deal is reached, and the contract only resolves YES on explicit U.S. wording.

↓

Projection Projection bullet: A May 31, 2026 lift remains plausible, but it is far from the near certainty implied by an 82c YES price.

Key Factors

	Factor
▲	Reuters reported on April 20, 2026 that Iran was only positively reviewing talks, no final decision had been made, and Trump said the blockade was going to remain.
▼	AP reported on April 19, 2026 that the U.S. seized an Iranian flagged cargo ship, putting the ceasefire under new strain and raising uncertainty around talks.
▲	AP reported on April 18, 2026 that Iran reclosed the strait and that Trump said the U.S. blockade would remain in full force until a deal was reached.
▲	Axios reported on April 17, 2026 that Trump sounded optimistic about a deal but still said he would not lift the blockade before a deal is reached.
▲	Reuters and Bloomberg reporting cited by The Jerusalem Post on April 16, 2026 said a full peace deal could take around six months, though a temporary memorandum remained possible.

Bayesian Calculation

Base rate: 82% YES from the market.

Positive update: Pakistan is still trying to broker talks, and a face saving memorandum could produce an announcement before May 31, 2026.

Negative update: The blockade remains Trump's main bargaining lever, talks are not locked in, and the contract requires an explicit announcement rather than mere de facto easing.

Daily Market Mispricings: 4 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 21, 2026

4 Mispricings at a Glance

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in April?

Causal Chain

Key Factors

Bayesian Calculation

Fresh Checks

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?

Causal Chain

Key Factors

Bayesian Calculation

Fresh Checks

Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

Causal Chain

Key Factors

Bayesian Calculation

Fresh Checks

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

Causal Chain

Key Factors

Bayesian Calculation

Fresh Checks

Conclusion

Methodology

Disclaimer

Trust surface

How our mispricing model works

Public track record

Naly vs Polymarket scorecard

Live mispricing archive

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Daily Market Mispricings: 4 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — April 21, 2026

4 Mispricings at a Glance

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in April?

Causal Chain

Key Factors

Bayesian Calculation

Fresh Checks

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?

Causal Chain

Key Factors

Bayesian Calculation

Fresh Checks

Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

Causal Chain

Key Factors

Bayesian Calculation

Fresh Checks

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

Causal Chain

Key Factors

Bayesian Calculation

Fresh Checks

Conclusion

Methodology

Disclaimer

Trust surface

How our mispricing model works

Public track record

Naly vs Polymarket scorecard

Live mispricing archive

Related Articles

Daily Market Mispricings: 3 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 11, 2026

Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 10, 2026

Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 9, 2026

Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 8, 2026