TL;DROn May 10, 2026, Naly's clearest disagreement with Polymarket is Iran diplomacy: we price next US-Iran meeting in Pakistan at 35c YES versus the market's 68c, and Trump agreeing to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31 at 54c YES versus 30c. The sharpest reason is mediator drift: Qatar is gaining control while asset-release language is already inside the active draft package.
- We think Polymarket is overweighting Pakistan's formal mediator role and underweighting the newer evidence that Qatar is now driving the hottest live channel.
- We think Polymarket is underpricing the chance of an Iranian asset-unfreeze agreement because the live draft already appears to include frozen-funds relief.
- The first disagreement is a venue-control problem, not a diplomacy-is-dead problem.
- The second disagreement is a contract-wording problem, not a cash-transfer-speed problem.
2 Mispricings at a Glance
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?
Why we disagree: Qatar now runs the hottest mediation channel and Geneva remains live, so Pakistan looks too dominant in the price.
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?
Why we disagree: The contract only needs agreement language, and frozen-funds relief already appears to be inside the active draft package.
How to read this: Polymarket Top Answer and Naly Top Answer show the final answer each side sees as most likely. Max Payout if Correct shows the gross upside from the current quote to the $1 settlement if the selected contract side wins. The horizontal graph still shows where that selected side sits on a 0c to $1 range for Polymarket versus Naly.
