Accuracy
T1 trust surface for verified prediction performance. Mispricing metrics below use answer-flip calls with a minimum 20-point component score.
Overall Performance
Total Predictions
148
132 resolved · 138 qualified · 14 pending
Naly Accuracy
34%
45/132 correct
Market Accuracy
65%
81/124 correct
Avg Component
40.7pp
36 same-side + 6 low-component flips excluded · 9 overdue
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Last 30 Days
29%accuracy (9/31 correct)
Accuracy by Category
politics
29%
18/62 correct
stock
52%
11/21 correct
finance
25%
4/16 correct
geopolitics
30%
3/10 correct
elections
56%
5/9 correct
crypto
25%
1/4 correct
sports
50%
1/2 correct
Calibration
Favored-answer probability vs actual outcome frequency on qualified answer-flip calls. Perfect calibration means predicted and actual bars are equal.
40-60%n=28
Predicted
55%
Actual
18%
60-80%n=53
Predicted
67%
Actual
38%
80-100%n=43
Predicted
90%
Actual
42%
Recent Resolutions
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $90B by June 30?
finance
Naly View
No 82%
Market View
Yes 66%
Component
48pp
Result
Wrong
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $165B by June 30?
finance
Naly View
No 75%
Market View
Yes 80%
Component
55pp
Result
Correct
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30?
finance
Naly View
Yes 90%
Market View
No 81%
Component
71pp
Result
Wrong
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30?
finance
Naly View
No 55%
Market View
Yes 82%
Component
37pp
Result
Wrong
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30?
finance
Naly View
Yes 86%
Market View
No 74%
Component
60pp
Result
Wrong
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $165B by June 30?
finance
Naly View
Yes 88%
Market View
No 84%
Component
72pp
Result
Wrong
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30?
finance
Naly View
No 70%
Market View
Yes 74%
Component
44pp
Result
Wrong
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
crypto
Naly View
No 58%
Market View
Yes 67%
Component
25pp
Result
Wrong
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
crypto
Naly View
Yes 64%
Market View
No 74%
Component
38pp
Result
Correct
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?
finance
Naly View
No 65%
Market View
Yes 85%
Component
50pp
Result
Wrong
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
finance
Naly View
No 78%
Market View
Yes 66%
Component
44pp
Result
Wrong
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?
finance
Naly View
No 74%
Market View
Yes 56%
Component
30pp
Result
Correct
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June?
finance
Naly View
No 76%
Market View
Yes 52%
Component
28pp
Result
Wrong
Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$90 in June?
finance
Naly View
Yes 62%
Market View
No 82%
Component
44pp
Result
Wrong
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?
elections
Naly View
No 60%
Market View
Yes 64%
Component
24pp
Result
Correct
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
geopolitics
Naly View
No 72%
Market View
Yes 60%
Component
32pp
Result
Correct
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
geopolitics
Naly View
No 65%
Market View
Yes 60%
Component
25pp
Result
Correct
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?
elections
Naly View
No 54%
Market View
Yes 73%
Component
27pp
Result
Wrong
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?
politics
Naly View
No 65%
Market View
Yes 68%
Component
33pp
Result
Correct
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
politics
Naly View
No 52%
Market View
Yes 73%
Component
25pp
Result
Wrong
| Event | Naly View | Market View | Component | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $90B by June 30?finance | No 82% | Yes 66% | 48pp | Wrong |
| Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $165B by June 30?finance | No 75% | Yes 80% | 55pp | Correct |
| Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30?finance | Yes 90% | No 81% | 71pp | Wrong |
| Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30?finance | No 55% | Yes 82% | 37pp | Wrong |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30?finance | Yes 86% | No 74% | 60pp | Wrong |
| Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $165B by June 30?finance | Yes 88% | No 84% | 72pp | Wrong |
| Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30?finance | No 70% | Yes 74% | 44pp | Wrong |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?crypto | No 58% | Yes 67% | 25pp | Wrong |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?crypto | Yes 64% | No 74% | 38pp | Correct |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?finance | No 65% | Yes 85% | 50pp | Wrong |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?finance | No 78% | Yes 66% | 44pp | Wrong |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?finance | No 74% | Yes 56% | 30pp | Correct |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June?finance | No 76% | Yes 52% | 28pp | Wrong |
| Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$90 in June?finance | Yes 62% | No 82% | 44pp | Wrong |
| Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?elections | No 60% | Yes 64% | 24pp | Correct |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30?geopolitics | No 72% | Yes 60% | 32pp | Correct |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30?geopolitics | No 65% | Yes 60% | 25pp | Correct |
| Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?elections | No 54% | Yes 73% | 27pp | Wrong |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?politics | No 65% | Yes 68% | 33pp | Correct |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?politics | No 52% | Yes 73% | 25pp | Wrong |