Overall Performance
Total Predictions
857
856 resolved
Naly Accuracy
61%
521/856 correct
Market Accuracy
0%
0/856 correct
Avg Edge
0pp
Average gap vs market
Recent Resolutions
No resolved predictions yet. Check back as events resolve.
Methodology
We scan active Polymarket events twice daily and run each through an 8-step Bayesian analysis combining web research, historical base rates, and expert signals. Events are selected for publication when our probability estimate diverges from the market by 8+ percentage points with research confidence of at least 60/100. All predictions are tracked and verified against actual outcomes when events resolve.