Polymarket was still pricing the YES side of a U.S.-Iran diplomatic-meeting contract at 38c in our selected slate, even though AP had already reported 21 hours of face-to-face talks in Islamabad on April 11-12. If those talks count under the contract language, the market is treating a settlement-interpretation problem as if it were still a live event-risk problem, leaving roughly 61 cents of fair-value edge on a $1 binary. Our second disagreement runs the other way: traders were paying 62c for a permanent peace deal by April 30, while the freshest reporting still describes draft terms, unresolved uranium and sanctions disputes, and a timeline that probably needs an extension before any durable accord can be signed.
- The clearest answer flip is the diplomatic-meeting contract: Polymarket's top answer is NO at 62%, while Naly's top answer is YES at 99%.
- For the peace-deal contract, we think traders are overpaying for headline momentum and underpricing the difference between a framework, a ceasefire extension, and a permanent agreement.
- The first market looks like event risk that has mostly collapsed into interpretation risk; the second still carries real substantive negotiation risk.
- The next repricing catalysts are a confirmed second Islamabad round, any formal ceasefire extension, and whether a signed text resolves enrichment, sanctions, and the uranium stockpile together.
2 Mispricings at a Glance
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?
Why we disagree: Reported Islamabad talks likely already satisfy the trigger, so the market may be pricing interpretation risk as event risk.
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Why we disagree: The market seems to be mistaking active negotiations and draft terms for a finished permanent deal.
How to read this: Polymarket Top Answer and Naly Top Answer show the final answer each side sees as most likely. Max Payout if Correct shows the gross upside from the current quote to the $1 settlement if the selected contract side wins. The horizontal graph still shows where that selected side sits on a 0c to $1 range for Polymarket versus Naly.
