TL;DROn May 21, 2026, Naly’s clearest geopolitical disagreement is Israel’s airspace: Polymarket prices YES at 60c that Israel closes it again by June 30, while our fair price is 28c. We also lean against a June lifting of the U.S. Hormuz blockade, with market YES at 58c versus our 35c. The common driver is mean reversion after acute crisis conditions ease.
Geopolitical contracts often stay anchored to the most vivid recent shock. Our process is to separate the current state from the path required for resolution, then price the catalysts that would actually have to happen before June 30, 2026. In both markets below, we think Polymarket is still overpaying for a second dramatic move rather than the more boring base case of partial normalization.
- Naly’s strongest answer flip is Israel airspace: market YES 60c versus our YES fair value 28c, implying NO remains our top answer.
- We also disagree with the market on a June lifting of the U.S. Hormuz blockade: market YES 58c versus our YES fair value 35c.
- In both cases, the market appears to overweight headline memory and underweight how institutions behave once crisis operations are already being normalized.
- Our edge is causal, not rhetorical: reopening processes, deterrence incentives, and bargaining leverage all point toward slower reversals than Polymarket is pricing.
2 Mispricings at a Glance
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
Why we disagree: Airspace is already back in normalization mode, so a fresh nationwide closure needs a new escalation path the market is pricing too casually.
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
Why we disagree: The blockade is still active leverage, and active enforcement makes a formal lifting announcement materially less likely than the market implies.
How to read this: Polymarket Top Answer and Naly Top Answer show the final answer each side sees as most likely. Max Payout if Correct shows the gross upside from the current quote to the $1 settlement if the selected contract side wins. The horizontal graph still shows where that selected side sits on a 0c to $1 range for Polymarket versus Naly.
