Polymarket is still pricing "Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?" near a coin flip at 47c YES, but our fair value is only 18c YES. In a $1 binary contract, 47c YES is both the current entry price and roughly the market-implied probability; our separate 18% probability estimate implies an 18c fair price on that same YES side. That 29-cent gap is the biggest divergence in today’s slate, and it matters because the calendar is now doing more work than diplomacy.
Across the five contracts below, the common pattern is straightforward: markets are still charging too much for dramatic outcomes that require both a fresh catalyst and very little friction. Our base case is that resolution windows are shorter than traders think, operational hurdles are higher than headlines imply, and recent price action has already shown where the market starts to run out of fuel.
- The biggest mispricing is the April 15 Iran conflict-end contract: time decay is now a stronger force than diplomacy headlines.
- Kharg Island still looks firmly under Iranian operational control; strikes are not the same as loss of control.
- Oil tail-risk is real, but jumping from mid-90s WTI to $120 or $130 in the remaining April window still requires a much larger disruption than the market currently has.
- Bitcoin is close enough to $75,000 to stay live, but range-bound trading and resistance near recent highs make 50c YES too rich.
5 Mispricings at a Glance
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
Why we disagree: Failed April 12 talks and an April 22 ceasefire expiry leave too little time for a qualifying end-state.
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Why we disagree: Ongoing tanker loadings suggest operational continuity, while true loss of control requires occupation or transfer, not just strikes.
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?
Why we disagree: Prices retraced after the ceasefire and $120 now needs a much larger shipping or production shock.
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?
Why we disagree: $130 is a true tail outcome from current levels and likely needs an outright severe Hormuz shutdown.
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April?
Why we disagree: ETF inflows help, but price is still below resistance and macro uncertainty has repeatedly capped rallies.
How to read this: Market Price is the live contract-side quote on Polymarket. Naly Fair Price is the fair cents price implied by Naly's probability estimate for that same side on a binary $1 contract. Edge is Naly Fair Price minus Market Price. Max Payout if Correct is the gross upside from the current quote to the $1 settlement if that side wins.
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
The quoted market price is 47c YES, meaning traders are paying 47 cents for a contract that pays $1 if the conflict is judged ended by April 15, 2026. Our estimate is 18% YES, which implies an 18c fair price on that same YES side; that is different from the 47c max payout available to a trader buying the opposite NO side at 53c, and different again from the 29c fair-value edge between market and our estimate.
Causal Chain
Key Factors
| Factor | |
|---|---|
| AP reported on April 12, 2026 that U.S.-Iran talks ended without agreement. | |
| The same reporting said the fragile ceasefire is due to expire on April 22, 2026, which undercuts the idea that the conflict is already effectively over. | |
| Trump’s blockade threat raises the chance of renewed coercion rather than settlement. | |
| Markets often overweight the word “ceasefire” and underweight whether it legally or operationally satisfies contract resolution. | |
| Late-stage time compression matters: once the window is this short, each unresolved procedural issue becomes fatal. |
Bayesian Calculation
Alternative explanation: The bullish case is that both sides may prefer to quietly freeze the conflict and let media language drift toward “over” even without a signed settlement. If contract adjudicators treat de facto de-escalation as sufficient, 47c YES is less crazy.
Fresh Checks
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
The quoted market price is 26c YES, so traders are paying 26 cents for a $1 contract that resolves YES if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by May 31, 2026. Our estimate is 7% YES, implying a 7c fair price on the YES side; that differs from the 26c max payout available on the opposite NO side at 74c, and from the 19c fair-value edge between market price and our fair value.
Causal Chain
Key Factors
| Factor | |
|---|---|
| Multiple maritime and satellite-tracking reports through early April still showed tanker presence and loading activity around Kharg. | |
| AP reported experts saw troop seizure as risky and possibly unnecessary relative to blockade strategies. | |
| Occupation is operationally harder than bombing fixed targets. | |
| Iran can retain control even if throughput drops or facilities take intermittent damage. | |
| Markets may be anchoring to how important Kharg is, not to how difficult it is to forcibly and durably take it. |
Bayesian Calculation
Alternative explanation: The bullish case is that the market is not forecasting a classic amphibious occupation, but some looser real-world collapse of Iranian command, evacuation, or internationally recognized loss of effective control. If adjudication leans functional rather than formal, YES has more room.
Fresh Checks
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?
The quoted market price is 38c YES, meaning the market is pricing a 38-cent entry for a $1 contract that pays if front-month WTI touches $120 during April 2026. Our estimate is 22% YES, so our fair value is 22c on that same YES side; that differs from the 38c max payout on the opposite NO side at 62c and from the 16c fair-value edge between market and our estimate.
Causal Chain
Key Factors
| Factor | |
|---|---|
| AP reported on April 8, 2026 that oil plunged below $95 after the ceasefire headline. | |
| AP’s April 10 futures update shows WTI still well below the $120 trigger. | |
| Goldman’s cited scenario work still placed April averages far below $120 absent a more severe disruption. | |
| Tail spikes can happen intraday, but the trigger requires a large move from current levels in a narrower remaining time window. | |
| OPEC+ supply additions and demand uncertainty still work against runaway upside once panic cools. |
Bayesian Calculation
Alternative explanation: The bullish case is that oil options and geopolitical gamma can create a short-lived overshoot far above fair macro value. If another disruption hits during thin liquidity, WTI does not need to stay at $120 for long to resolve YES.
Fresh Checks
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?
The quoted market price is 23c YES, so traders are paying 23 cents for a $1 contract that resolves YES if WTI touches $130 in April 2026. Our estimate is 8% YES, implying an 8c fair price on that same YES side; that is distinct from the 23c max payout available on the opposite NO side at 77c and from the 15c fair-value edge between market and our estimate.
Causal Chain
Key Factors
| Factor | |
|---|---|
| Current spot and futures references remain far below $130. | |
| Even bullish bank scenarios discussed in recent reporting do not treat $130 WTI as the base case. | |
| The April window is shrinking, so distance-to-trigger matters more every day. | |
| For this contract to win, you likely need not just tension but a severe interruption to physical flows. | |
| Markets often underprice the difference between “headline volatility” and “infrastructure-loss volatility.” |
Bayesian Calculation
Alternative explanation: The bullish case is that this is a pure gap-risk trade: if one overnight event suddenly freezes transport through Hormuz, prices can leap far beyond what linear forecasting models imply. Traders may be paying for convexity rather than central tendency.
Fresh Checks
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April?
The quoted market price is 50c YES, meaning traders are paying 50 cents for a contract that pays $1 if Bitcoin trades at $75,000 during April 2026. Our estimate is 38% YES, which implies a 38c fair price on that same YES side; that differs from the 50c max payout on the opposite NO side at 50c and from the 12c fair-value edge between market and our estimate.
Causal Chain
Key Factors
| Factor | |
|---|---|
| Bitcoin was around $70,792 on April 13, 2026, still below the target. | |
| Recent ETF inflow reports show institutional support has improved versus the February washout. | |
| Citi’s March view of range-trading near $70,000 still fits current price action better than a clean breakout narrative. | |
| Bitcoin previously traded above $74,000 in March, so the contract is plausible, but proximity alone is not edge. | |
| Geopolitical and macro volatility can support Bitcoin as an alternative asset, but they can also tighten liquidity and interrupt rallies. |
Bayesian Calculation
Alternative explanation: The bullish case is simple: Bitcoin does not need a full trend change, only a marginal extension. If ETF inflows persist for several sessions and traders chase momentum, the final few thousand dollars can disappear quickly.
Fresh Checks
Conclusion
The watchpoints here are concrete: any surprise diplomatic statement before April 15 for the Iran contract, any verified change in who physically administers Kharg Island, any renewed disruption to Hormuz shipping that pushes oil back into panic mode, and any sustained Bitcoin move through the low-$70,000 resistance zone. Until one of those catalysts actually arrives, the cleaner trade is fading markets that are still overpaying for dramatic outcomes.
Methodology
We compare the market-implied probability from the quoted contract price with Naly’s internal fair-value estimate, then ask whether the remaining path to resolution is easier or harder than the market assumes. We focus on causal bottlenecks, operational constraints, and calendar compression rather than headline heat. Our broader prediction methodology and historical calibration are tracked on our track record.
Disclaimer
This article is for informational purposes only and reflects probabilistic judgment, not certainty. It is not financial, legal, or investment advice, and prediction markets can remain mispriced longer than expected.