The biggest divergence on today’s board is Bank of America earnings: Polymarket implies 82% for a beat, while our model sits at 44%. That is a 38-point gap concentrated around a very tight EPS strike, where even small estimate drift can flip resolution outcomes.
- The largest gaps are in contracts with tight thresholds where consensus sits at or just below the strike.
- In late-cycle bank earnings setups, estimate revisions and threshold design matter more than headline momentum.
- In sports, lineup uncertainty and fixture congestion can create pricing lags, especially near playoff or cup inflection points.
- In Hungary, opposing poll ecosystems imply wider uncertainty bands than a single-point market quote suggests.
5 Mispricings at a Glance
Bank of America earnings beat
Why we disagree: Consensus near/below strike and recent estimate softening make the “beat” bar less forgiving than market pricing implies.
Wells Fargo earnings beat
Why we disagree: Expected EPS clustered around the strike leaves little cushion; late estimate mix does not justify very high beat odds.
Hurricanes vs. Utah
Why we disagree: Team quality edge is real, but late rest decisions create uncertainty the market may be over-penalizing.
Fidesz-KDNP seat outcome
Why we disagree: Independent projections imply lower Fidesz seat ceilings; market may underweight anti-incumbent momentum.
Sevilla vs. Atlético Madrid
Why we disagree: Relative team strength and Sevilla stress context favor Atlético more than current market pricing.
How to read this: Polymarket Top Answer and Naly Top Answer show the final answer each side sees as most likely. Max Payout if Correct shows the gross upside from the current quote to the $1 settlement if the selected contract side wins. The horizontal graph still shows where that selected side sits on a 0c to $1 range for Polymarket versus Naly.
Will Bank of America (BAC) beat quarterly earnings?
Consensus near/below strike and recent estimate softening make the “beat” bar less forgiving than market pricing implies.
Causal Chain
Key Factors
| Factor | |
|---|---|
| Report timing is fixed for April 15, reducing event-date uncertainty. | |
| Consensus snapshots near 0.99 create a razor-thin cushion versus the strike. | |
| Recent revision direction has been negative rather than positive. | |
| Prior-quarter strength included market-sensitive businesses that are not always stable quarter to quarter. | |
| High implied odds leave little margin for normal estimate error. |
Bayesian Calculation
Alternative explanation: The market may be correctly anticipating a late pre-release expectation reset followed by an upside surprise from markets and fee lines, which would make the current high beat probability rational.
