TL;DROn May 22, 2026, Naly’s clearest finance disagreement is private-Polymarket euphoria: Anduril YES trades at 66c and SpaceX YES at 74c, but we price those same June 30 threshold contracts at 18c and 30c. The sharpest reason is calendar compression: fresh financing anchors sit well below the targets, while the remaining window is too short for another step-function repricing.
Polymarket is pricing a rapid second leg higher in late-stage private valuations. We think that overstates how quickly private-market marks usually move after a fresh financing event or IPO filing resets the anchor. In both cases below, the market is not merely optimistic. It is assuming an unusually fast repricing path in a narrow window ending June 30, 2026.
- Naly’s biggest answer flip is Anduril: market YES 66% vs Naly YES 18%, which means market NO 34% vs Naly NO 82%.
- SpaceX is also an answer flip: market YES 74% vs Naly YES 30%, or market NO 26% vs Naly NO 70%.
- In both contracts, the main disagreement is not direction of long-term business quality; it is whether a new valuation mark can jump fast enough before June 30, 2026.
- Fresh financing and filing anchors matter more than hype when the resolution window is only weeks long.
2 Mispricings at a Glance
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $90B by June 30?
Why we disagree: A fresh $61B priced round on May 13, 2026 leaves too much distance to $90B for such a short follow-on window.
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30?
Why we disagree: The IPO filing anchors valuation near, not clearly above, $2T while losses, capex, and governance discount widen the odds of landing below the threshold.
How to read this: Polymarket Top Answer and Naly Top Answer show the final answer each side sees as most likely. Max Payout if Correct shows the gross upside from the current quote to the $1 settlement if the selected contract side wins. The horizontal graph still shows where that selected side sits on a 0c to $1 range for Polymarket versus Naly.
