TL;DRNaly disagrees with Polymarket on two Iran-linked contracts on April 25, 2026: we make a diplomatic meeting by April 26 a 62c YES, not 30c, and we make a Hormuz-blockade-lift announcement by May 31 just 38c YES, not 64c. The sharpest reason is simple: the market is overweighting headlines and underweighting the actual sequencing constraints around mediated talks and sanctions relief.
- Naly flips the answer on both selected markets, not just the confidence level.
- The April 26 diplomacy contract looks too cheap because Pakistan-mediated, in-person shuttle diplomacy can still satisfy the path to resolution even after Tehran denied a direct sit-down.
- The May 31 blockade-lift contract looks too rich because the White House is still treating the blockade as leverage that stays in place until a broader deal is actually signed.
- Iran's fractured decision-making raises the odds of messy mediation but lowers the odds of a clean, fast policy announcement that fully lifts pressure.
2 Mispricings at a Glance
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?
Why we disagree: The market is leaning too hard on Tehran's denial of a direct meeting and not enough on the still-live mediated, in-person path.
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Why we disagree: The market is pricing a quick political off-ramp even though Trump still frames lifting the blockade as the reward for a broader settlement, not the precondition for one.
How to read this: Polymarket Top Answer and Naly Top Answer show the final answer each side sees as most likely. Max Payout if Correct shows the gross upside from the current quote to the $1 settlement if the selected contract side wins. The horizontal graph still shows where that selected side sits on a 0c to $1 range for Polymarket versus Naly.
