TL;DROn May 26, 2026, Naly’s biggest geopolitical disagreement with Polymarket is Iran airspace risk: the May 27 contract trades around 17c YES while we mark it 78c fair, and the May 31 line sits near 25c versus the same 78c fair value. The sharpest reason is rule fit: a documented western Tehran FIR shutdown likely already qualifies as a major regional closure.
- Naly sees both Iran airspace contracts as answer flips, not just same-side confidence differences.
- The core disagreement is over whether the reported western Tehran FIR shutdown already satisfies the market’s definition of a major regional closure.
- Polymarket appears to be discounting heavily for adjudication ambiguity, official denials, and daylight exceptions.
- We think those caveats matter, but not enough to outweigh a reported NOTAM-driven closure across a major Iranian airspace region.
2 Mispricings at a Glance
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?
Why we disagree: Market seems to underweight the chance that a documented western Tehran FIR shutdown already meets the contract’s major-region threshold.
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Why we disagree: Same evidence base, but with a longer deadline; we think the market is still overpricing disqualification risk relative to the written rules.
How to read this: Polymarket Top Answer and Naly Top Answer show the final answer each side sees as most likely. Max Payout if Correct shows the gross upside from the current quote to the $1 settlement if the selected contract side wins. The horizontal graph still shows where that selected side sits on a 0c to $1 range for Polymarket versus Naly.
