TL;DRNaly’s biggest politics disagreement on May 25, 2026 is that Polymarket still prices May Trump calls to Vladimir Putin at 25c YES and to Volodymyr Zelenskyy at 17c YES, while we see fair value closer to 60c and 55c. The sharp reason is cadence: active U.S.-brokered war diplomacy usually compresses leader-to-leader contact into the final week, not away from it.
- Polymarket still treats both May call contracts as likely NO outcomes, but Naly sees both as live YES setups.
- The edge is mostly about process, not vibes: once Trump is publicly brokering ceasefires and prisoner swaps, leader calls become an operational tool.
- The market appears to overweight the lack of a pre-announced calendar and underweight how quickly ad hoc diplomacy can materialize.
- Both contracts remain open as of May 25, 2026, so the relevant window is the final six days of May, not the full month.
2 Mispricings at a Glance
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May?
Why we disagree: The market prices silence, but ongoing ceasefire bargaining makes another direct Trump-Putin contact more likely than a static calendar suggests.
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May?
Why we disagree: The market discounts direct Trump-Zelenskyy follow-up, but renewed U.S. peace-format planning gives strong incentive for another call before month-end.
How to read this: Polymarket Top Answer and Naly Top Answer show the final answer each side sees as most likely. Max Payout if Correct shows the gross upside from the current quote to the $1 settlement if the selected contract side wins. The horizontal graph still shows where that selected side sits on a 0c to $1 range for Polymarket versus Naly.