TL;DRNaly's clearest disagreements with Polymarket on May 6, 2026 are Jerome Powell out as Fed chair by May 15, priced at 32c YES versus our 60c fair price, and a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, priced at 38c YES versus our 62c fair price. The sharpest reason is contract mechanics: both markets need less than traders seem to think, while the official process is already moving.
- Warsh is already through committee and cloture is filed, so the Powell contract is mostly about whether the Senate uses the final four days before May 15 efficiently enough.
- The US-Iran contract only needs one qualifying diplomatic meeting, not a final peace deal, and Pakistan is already carrying live proposals between both sides.
- In both cases Polymarket looks more anchored to recent friction than to the lower operational bar needed for a YES resolution.
2 Mispricings at a Glance
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?
Why we disagree: The market is overweighting Powell's pro tem fallback and underweighting a Senate process already lined up against a hard term-end date.
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
Why we disagree: Traders seem to be pricing a full breakthrough, but the contract only needs one acknowledged diplomatic meeting and the Pakistan channel is already active.
How to read this: Polymarket Top Answer and Naly Top Answer show the final answer each side sees as most likely. Max Payout if Correct shows the gross upside from the current quote to the $1 settlement if the selected contract side wins. The horizontal graph still shows where that selected side sits on a 0c to $1 range for Polymarket versus Naly.
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?
This is an answer flip, not just a confidence tweak. The quoted market price is 32c on the YES side, meaning a trader pays $0.32 now for a $1 binary payout if Powell is out as Fed chair by May 15, 2026 and $0 otherwise. Our separate 60% YES estimate implies a 60c fair price on that same contract. That creates a +28c fair-value edge, while the maximum payout if YES settles is 68c.
Causal Chain
Key Factors
| Factor | |
|---|---|
| AP reported on April 29 that the Senate Banking Committee advanced Kevin Warsh on a 13-11 party-line vote. | |
| Powell said on April 29 that this was his last press conference as chair and made clear that Warsh becomes chair once he is confirmed and sworn in. | |
| A published Senate schedule from April 30 shows a May 11 cloture vote on Warsh's Board nomination, with cloture also filed on the chair nomination. | |
| The hard date matters: Powell's chair term ends on May 15 even if he remains a governor afterward. | |
| The main bearish fact is still procedural: Powell has already said he can remain chair pro tem if the Senate misses the deadline. |
Bayesian Calculation
Alternative explanation: The cleaner bearish case is that traders are right to focus almost entirely on Senate floor math. If the chamber burns even one extra day on cloture, objections, or unrelated business, Powell can stay chair pro tem and the contract misses even if Warsh still looks likely soon after.
