The largest gap today is US bank failure by April 30: Polymarket sits near 16%, while our estimate is 72% (a 56-point divergence). That spread is large enough to matter because the disagreement is not about macro vibes; it is about contract interpretation risk versus already observed failure data.
- Our biggest edge is in event-definition misread risk, especially where official outcomes may already satisfy resolution criteria.
- We are fading optimistic restart timing in Qatar LNG because physical damage plus logistics create timeline friction that markets often underprice.
- We lean risk-on for today’s SPX close, but with lower conviction than the headline gap implies because intraday reversal risk remains high.
- We assign only a moderate uplift on U.S. acquisition of Iranian enriched uranium: talks are active, but execution constraints are severe.
4 Mispricings at a Glance
US bank failure by April 30?
Why we disagree: Official FDIC failure data may already satisfy outcome conditions depending on contract wording.
Why we disagree: Damage + force majeure + restart complexity imply slower normalization than headline traders expect.
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 9?
Why we disagree: Strong prior-session momentum and risk-on breadth raise close-up odds above coinflip.
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Why we disagree: Diplomatic channels create path dependency, but practical transfer mechanics cap upside.
How to read this: Polymarket Top Answer and Naly Top Answer show the final answer each side sees as most likely. Max Payout if Correct shows the gross upside from the current quote to the $1 settlement if the selected contract side wins. The horizontal graph still shows where that selected side sits on a 0c to $1 range for Polymarket versus Naly.
US bank failure by April 30?
Official FDIC failure data may already satisfy outcome conditions depending on contract wording.
