The largest gap today is US bank failure by April 30: Polymarket sits near 16%, while our estimate is 72% (a 56-point divergence). That spread is large enough to matter because the disagreement is not about macro vibes; it is about contract interpretation risk versus already observed failure data.
- Our biggest edge is in event-definition misread risk, especially where official outcomes may already satisfy resolution criteria.
- We are fading optimistic restart timing in Qatar LNG because physical damage plus logistics create timeline friction that markets often underprice.
- We lean risk-on for today’s SPX close, but with lower conviction than the headline gap implies because intraday reversal risk remains high.
- We assign only a moderate uplift on U.S. acquisition of Iranian enriched uranium: talks are active, but execution constraints are severe.
4 Mispricings at a Glance
| Event | Polymarket | Naly AI | Gap | Confidence | Why We Disagree |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US bank failure by April 30? | 16% | 72% | +56pp | 52% | Official FDIC failure data may already satisfy outcome conditions depending on contract wording. |
| QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? | 34% | 10% | -24pp | 78% | Damage + force majeure + restart complexity imply slower normalization than headline traders expect. |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 9? | 46% | 63% | +17pp | 72% | Strong prior-session momentum and risk-on breadth raise close-up odds above coinflip. |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | 18% | 28% | +10pp | 64% | Diplomatic channels create path dependency, but practical transfer mechanics cap upside. |
US bank failure by April 30?
Official FDIC failure data may already satisfy outcome conditions depending on contract wording.
Causal Chain
Key Factors
| Factor | |
|---|---|
| FDIC failed-bank records list Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust closure on January 30, 2026. | |
| FDIC in-brief 2026 page confirms one failure event and acquirer details. | |
| Low current market pricing suggests many traders may be assuming “new failure after listing,” which may be wrong. | |
| Banking stress is lumpy: one realized event changes tail assumptions more than smooth macro indicators imply. |
Bayesian Calculation
Alternative explanation: The market may be correctly pricing a narrow resolution rule that excludes already occurred failures or requires specific federal wording not yet met.
Fresh Checks
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?
Damage + force majeure + restart complexity imply slower normalization than headline traders expect.
Causal Chain
Key Factors
| Factor | |
|---|---|
| Multiple reports cite March production halt and force majeure actions. | |
| Coverage points to damaged export capacity and disrupted contract flows. | |
| LNG systems have restart sequencing bottlenecks (feed gas, liquefaction trains, shipping windows). | |
| Political signaling can create bullish headlines, but operational throughput usually lags statements. |
Bayesian Calculation
Alternative explanation: Authorities could issue a narrowly framed announcement of resumed production at limited trains, which markets may treat as enough for resolution.
Fresh Checks
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 9?
Strong prior-session momentum and risk-on breadth raise close-up odds above coinflip.
Causal Chain
Key Factors
| Factor | |
|---|---|
| AP market wrap shows a strong S&P 500 gain on April 8. | |
| Recent regime has featured rapid risk-on reversals after stress events. | |
| Index-level momentum is concentrated but broad enough to push close direction. | |
| Main counter-risk is late-session macro headline reversal. |
Bayesian Calculation
Alternative explanation: A single macro headline (rates, geopolitics, or liquidity shock) can dominate microstructure and erase opening strength into the close.
Fresh Checks
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Diplomatic channels create path dependency, but practical transfer mechanics cap upside.
Causal Chain
Key Factors
| Factor | |
|---|---|
| Reporting indicates active mediation and confidence-building discussions tied to uranium stockpile issues. | |
| Some outlets cite conditional flexibility on dilution/handling if sanctions relief is material. | |
| Countervailing evidence: Iranian officials also publicly reject transfer in some channels. | |
| IAEA visibility constraints raise verification complexity and timing risk. |
Bayesian Calculation
Alternative explanation: The market may be right that this is mostly negotiation theater, with no operationally executable transfer mechanism before the deadline.
Fresh Checks
Methodology
We use event-specific base rates, causal-chain updates, and explicit negative-case stress tests, then compare forecasts against our public track record.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and reflects probabilistic judgment, not investment advice. Forecasts can be wrong, and event-market rules can resolve in ways that differ from headline interpretation.