TL;DRNaly’s sharpest May 21, 2026 election disagreement is Colombia: Polymarket prices Iván Cepeda at 83c to win outright in round one, while we mark that same YES contract at 10c fair value because leading polls still sit well below the 50% threshold. We also flip Peru, where Roberto Sánchez looks closer to a coin flip than a 22c long shot.
Prediction markets are useful because they compress a lot of information quickly. They also make systematic mistakes when traders anchor on who is leading instead of what a contract actually requires to resolve. Today’s two biggest election mispricings are both answer flips: one market seems to confuse first-place polling with an outright first-round majority, while the other still underprices coalition math in a runoff.
- Colombia looks like a classic threshold error: leading the first round is not the same as clearing 50% plus one.
- Peru looks like a coalition error: a weak first-round base can still become a live runoff majority when most voters backed someone else.
- In both markets, Naly disagrees on the final answer itself, not just on confidence.
- The next catalysts are late polling, endorsement flow, undecided-voter movement, and any sign of turnout asymmetry.
2 Mispricings at a Glance
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Why we disagree: The market appears to price Cepeda as if a polling lead is close to an outright majority, but recent reporting still places him materially below 50% with a large undecided bloc and a runoff path as the base case.
Why we disagree: The market still prices Sánchez like a first-round outsider, but the runoff is official, over 70% of first-round voters backed someone else, and recent reporting points to either a dead heat or only a narrow Keiko edge.
How to read this: Polymarket Top Answer and Naly Top Answer show the final answer each side sees as most likely. Max Payout if Correct shows the gross upside from the current quote to the $1 settlement if the selected contract side wins. The horizontal graph still shows where that selected side sits on a 0c to $1 range for Polymarket versus Naly.
