Polymarket’s largest gap versus our model today is Apple #2 by market cap on April 30: market YES 49c vs Naly fair 72c, a +23c edge on the same binary side. In binary contracts, a quote like 49c YES is both your entry price and roughly the market-implied probability; a Naly estimate of 72% YES implies a 72c fair price. That distinction matters because max payout if correct (cashflow from the contract) is different from fair-value edge (mispricing versus fair odds).
- The strongest disagreement is Apple staying #2 by April 30; the current cap gap over Microsoft is large enough that endpoint variance may be underpriced.
- Markets still price too much “clean resolution” into Iran conflict-end timing and too little path-dependence from Lebanon spillover and conditional talks.
- Hungary seat-bracket pricing still looks noisy across pollster house effects; we shade down selected Fidesz-outcome odds versus market.
- WTI downside to $80 in April looks overbid versus current disruption assumptions and official energy outlooks.
- Atletico’s quality edge remains real, but lineup rotation/injury uncertainty trims conviction and keeps this as a medium-confidence disagreement.
5 Mispricings at a Glance
Why we disagree: Current cap cushion plus short horizon likely dominate event-day volatility.
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?
Why we disagree: De-escalation helps, but supply/outage regime still keeps downside-to-$80 odds lower than market.
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
Why we disagree: Market may be overweighting headline ceasefire and underweighting unresolved conditions/escalation channels.
Why we disagree: Independent projections and anti-incumbent momentum argue selected Fidesz bracket is too expensive.
Sevilla FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid
Why we disagree: Relative team strength supports Atletico more than price implies, even after rotation discount.
How to read this: Market Price is the live contract-side quote on Polymarket. Naly Fair Price is the fair cents price implied by Naly's probability estimate for that same side on a binary $1 contract. Edge is Naly Fair Price minus Market Price. Max Payout if Correct is the gross upside from the current quote to the $1 settlement if that side wins.
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
The quoted 49c YES refers to the YES side of Apple finishing April 30 as the #2 company by market cap; in a $1 binary, 49c is both entry price and implied probability. Our 72% YES estimate maps to a 72c fair price on the same side. If correct, max contract payout mechanics are separate from valuation edge: payout is contract cashflow, while edge is 72c fair minus 49c market = +23c.
Causal Chain
Key Factors
| Factor | |
|---|---|
| Latest equity snapshot shows Apple around $4.05T market cap vs Microsoft around $3.59T. | |
| Nvidia remains #1, so this is a direct Apple-vs-Microsoft rank contest for #2. | |
| Apple earnings are dated April 30, introducing event-day volatility. | |
| Endpoint resolution favors the incumbent when the starting cushion is large. |
Bayesian Calculation
Alternative explanation: The market may be pricing a regime where Microsoft’s AI-linked multiple expands faster into month-end while Apple de-rates on guidance, creating a late single-day rank flip.
Fresh Checks
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?
The quoted 39c YES refers to the YES side of WTI printing the contract’s low-$80 condition in April; 39c is the market-implied probability and entry cost on that side. Our 20% YES maps to 20c fair value on the same side. Max payout if YES resolves is a contract cashflow concept; the fair-value edge here is 20c minus 39c = -19c.
Causal Chain
Key Factors
| Factor | |
|---|---|
| EIA’s April 7 STEO still assumes significant April production shut-ins and elevated risk premium. | |
| EIA’s base case has Brent peaking in 2Q26, consistent with still-tight near-term conditions. | |
| AP reported a sharp one-day oil drop on ceasefire headlines, but levels remained well above $80. | |
| Strait-of-Hormuz normalization assumptions are gradual, not instant. |
Bayesian Calculation
Alternative explanation: If diplomacy holds unexpectedly well and freight/insurance premia normalize quickly, the curve could reprice lower fast enough to tag the low-$80 threshold.
Fresh Checks
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
The quoted 78c YES is for the YES side that the conflict ends by May 15; that is both entry cost and implied probability in a $1 binary. Our 60% YES probability implies 60c fair price on that same side. Max payout mechanics and edge differ: payout is contract settlement cashflow, while edge is 60c fair minus 78c market = -18c.
Causal Chain
Key Factors
| Factor | |
|---|---|
| AP reports direct U.S.-Iran talks in Pakistan under a fragile ceasefire. | |
| AP also reports continued Israel-Hezbollah fire, complicating full conflict termination. | |
| Iran’s preconditions for talks create execution risk. | |
| Time-to-deadline is meaningful but not enough to guarantee durable end-state. |
Bayesian Calculation
Alternative explanation: The market may be correctly seeing this as a political-offramp phase where all major parties prefer temporary settlement over renewed kinetic escalation before May 15.
Fresh Checks
# of seats won by Fidesz-KDNP in Hungary parliamentary election?
The quoted 40c YES here refers to the selected YES side within this multi-bracket seat market for Fidesz-KDNP; as with all binaries, 40c is entry price and implied probability. Our 24% estimate on that same selected side implies a 24c fair price. Max payout if correct is contract cashflow; fair-value edge is 24c minus 40c = -16c.
Causal Chain
Key Factors
| Factor | |
|---|---|
| Euronews summarizes final-week polling with several shops showing wider Tisza lead. | |
| AP reports unusually large anti-Orbán mobilization in late campaign days. | |
| Polymarket’s own bracket board shows sharp dispersion across outcomes, signaling uncertainty. | |
| House effects and rural-turnout advantages keep tail risk for Fidesz alive. |
Bayesian Calculation
Alternative explanation: The market may be correctly weighting pro-government pollsters and constituency-level mechanics that can over-deliver seats relative to national vote share.
Fresh Checks
Sevilla FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid
The quoted 39c YES refers to the YES side for Atletico on this match contract; in a $1 binary, that is both entry cost and implied probability. Our 57% Atletico YES implies a 57c fair price on the same side. Max payout if correct and fair-value edge are different concepts: edge is 57c fair minus 39c market = +18c.
Causal Chain
Key Factors
| Factor | |
|---|---|
| Sofascore lists Sevilla 17th and Atletico 4th pre-match. | |
| Match is scheduled Apr 11, 2026, 19:00 UTC; market is event-timed and not yet final in pre-kickoff context. | |
| AS reports heavy Atletico rotation and Oblak absence risk, which we haircut into price. | |
| Recent H2H trend and roster depth still favor Atletico more than 39c. |
Bayesian Calculation
Alternative explanation: The market may be correctly anticipating a low-tempo, rotation-heavy away setup where draw probability absorbs most of Atletico’s nominal quality advantage.
Fresh Checks
Conclusion
Watch three near-term catalysts: April 30 mega-cap earnings dispersion (Apple/MSFT rank risk), daily conflict de-escalation credibility in the Iran channel, and final lineup confirmation for Sevilla-Atletico. These are the highest-impact nodes that can compress or widen today’s listed edges before resolution.
Methodology
We price each side as a probability first, then convert to fair cents on the same binary contract side (e.g., 32% = 32c fair). We track calibration and outcomes publicly at our track record.
Disclaimer
This analysis is informational and reflects probabilistic estimates, not financial advice. Prediction-market prices are volatile, liquidity-sensitive, and can move on new information faster than models update.