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Polymarket assigns 0% probability to gold reaching $3,000 by March 31, 2026 with $184,656 in trading volume
Gold would need a 15-20% rally in ~27 days — historically requires black swan events
Fed's higher-for-longer rate policy pressures gold by increasing opportunity cost of non-yielding assets
Key catalysts to watch: March 18 FOMC meeting, geopolitical escalation in Middle East/Eastern Europe
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