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Trade and reserve data help the won, but tighter U.S. money still supports the dollar.
The won sits between Korea’s stronger external balance and the dollar pull from tighter U.S. rates.
The sections below walk through how each case reads the same frozen evidence, with the stored readings and charts alongside.
Currently better supported
The last stored reading for Bank of Korea base rate is 3% (Aug 2026), a change of +0.5%p from the first stored month.
As of Aug 2026, Korea won per U.S. dollar closing rate stands at 1,372.5 won in the stored series, −176.9 won from the first stored month.
Trailing 12 months · last reading each month · 8 of 12 months available
For Korea seasonally adjusted current account, the Jun 2026 stored reading is about 44.4 billion U.S. dollars; the gap from the first stored month is +35 billion U.S. dollars.
Trailing 12 months · last reading each month · 9 of 12 months available
The last stored reading for Korea foreign exchange reserves is about 427.9 billion U.S. dollars (Jul 2026), a change of +5.9 billion U.S. dollars from the first stored month.
As of Jun 2026, Korea customs exports stands at about 102.2 billion U.S. dollars in the stored series, +36.3 billion U.S. dollars from the first stored month.
For Korea customs imports, the Jun 2026 stored reading is about 66.1 billion U.S. dollars; the gap from the first stored month is +9.7 billion U.S. dollars.
The last stored reading for Korea real GDP, seasonally adjusted is about 600.4 trillion Korean won (Apr 2026), a change of +14.4 trillion Korean won from the first stored month.
Korea’s rate hike came with stronger growth, and Korea’s current account, exports, reserves, and spot moves all improved. Those flows add dollar supply at home and reduce pressure for external funding. By the evaluation date, the won extends its late August rebound.
03 · Hypothetical result to testBy 2026-09-30, KRW per USD closes below 1372.5.
Trailing 12 months · last reading each month · 4 of 12 months available
The last stored reading for KRW per U.S. dollar spot rate is 1,385.01 won (Aug 2026), a change of −118.95 won from the first stored month.
As of Aug 2026, Effective federal funds rate stands at 3.63% in the stored series, +0.01%p from the first stored month.
Trailing 12 months · monthly release · 10 of 12 months available
For U.S. consumer prices, the Jul 2026 stored reading is an index level of 332.813 (1982–84=100); the gap from the first stored month is +8.568 points.
U.S. 7-year Treasury auction (4.512%) is filed among this case's supporting evidence.
U.S. policy stays tighter than Korea’s, and recent U.S. inflation and funding data keep Treasury yields firm. That rate gap supports dollar demand even after Korea’s hike and better trade flows. By the evaluation date, the won gives back its late August rebound.
03 · Hypothetical result to testBy 2026-09-30, KRW per USD closes above 1372.5.
The “Stronger won branch” case currently leads 78/100 to 61/100. The bars below show how the 21 evidence items split between support and opposition in each case.
Scores compare logical and evidentiary support; they are not probabilities. Both outcomes are Naly hypotheses.
Reader ballot
Read both cases and their counterevidence, then choose the one the evidence supports more strongly today.
Case A
By 2026-09-30, KRW per USD closes below 1372.5.
Case B
By 2026-09-30, KRW per USD closes above 1372.5.
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