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US policy firmness and Korea's external improvement pull the won in opposite directions.
The split is whether US rate pressure beats Korea's external improvement.
The sections below walk through how each case reads the same frozen evidence, with the stored readings and charts alongside.
Trailing 12 months · last reading each month · 4 of 12 months available
The last stored reading for Effective federal funds rate is 3.63% (Aug 2026), a change of +0.01%p from the first stored month.
Trailing 12 months · monthly release · 10 of 12 months available
As of Jul 2026, U.S. consumer prices stands at an index level of 332.813 (1982–84=100) in the stored series, +8.568 points from the first stored month.
U.S. 7-year Treasury auction (4.512%) is filed among this case's supporting evidence.
The last stored reading for U.S. nominal GDP is about 32.5 trillion U.S. dollars (Apr 2026), a change of +1.1 trillion U.S. dollars from the first stored month.
If wider rate gaps and firm US demand keep drawing funds into dollar assets, the won stays softer than the baseline.
03 · Hypothetical result to testOn 2026-10-30, KRW per USD close is above 1372.5.
Currently better supported
The last stored reading for Bank of Korea base rate is 3% (Aug 2026), a change of +0.5%p from the first stored month.
As of Aug 2026, Korea won per U.S. dollar closing rate stands at 1,372.5 won in the stored series, −176.9 won from the first stored month.
Trailing 12 months · last reading each month · 8 of 12 months available
For Korea seasonally adjusted current account, the Jun 2026 stored reading is about 44.4 billion U.S. dollars; the gap from the first stored month is +35 billion U.S. dollars.
The last stored reading for Korea customs exports is about 102.2 billion U.S. dollars (Jun 2026), a change of +36.3 billion U.S. dollars from the first stored month.
Trailing 12 months · last reading each month · 9 of 12 months available
As of Jul 2026, Korea consumer price index stands at an index level of 119.77 (2020=100) in the stored series, +2.71 points from the first stored month.
For Korea real GDP, seasonally adjusted, the Apr 2026 stored reading is about 600.4 trillion Korean won; the gap from the first stored month is +14.4 trillion Korean won.
If Korea's rate move, export rebound, and stronger external balances dominate, the won extends its late August gains.
03 · Hypothetical result to testOn 2026-10-30, KRW per USD close is below 1372.5.
The “Below 1372.5 on 2026-10-30” case currently leads 79/100 to 71/100. The bars below show how the 19 evidence items split between support and opposition in each case.
Scores compare logical and evidentiary support; they are not probabilities. Both outcomes are Naly hypotheses.
Reader ballot
Read both cases and their counterevidence, then choose the one the evidence supports more strongly today.
Case A
On 2026-10-30, KRW per USD close is above 1372.5.
Case B
On 2026-10-30, KRW per USD close is below 1372.5.
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