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Korean trade strength is colliding with stubborn U.S. yield support.
The won sits between Korea’s stronger external pulse and America’s firmer dollar pull.
The sections below walk through how each case reads the same frozen evidence, with the stored readings and charts alongside.
Trailing 12 months · last reading each month · 4 of 12 months available
The last stored reading for Effective federal funds rate is 3.63% (Aug 2026), a change of +0.01%p from the first stored month.
Trailing 12 months · monthly release · 10 of 12 months available
As of Jul 2026, U.S. consumer prices stands at an index level of 332.813 (1982–84=100) in the stored series, +8.568 points from the first stored month.
U.S. 7-year Treasury auction (4.512%) is filed among this case's supporting evidence.
The last stored reading for U.S. nominal GDP is about 32.5 trillion U.S. dollars (Apr 2026), a change of +1.1 trillion U.S. dollars from the first stored month.
The frozen data show firm U.S. policy, inflation, output, and Treasury yield signals, even as Korea’s trade and rate backdrop improved. That mix can keep dollar carry and long yield demand stronger than the won’s external support. If that happens, KRW per USD finishes above the threshold on the evaluation date.
03 · Hypothetical result to testKRW per USD closes above 1372.5 on 2026-10-30.
Currently better supported
The last stored reading for Bank of Korea base rate is 3% (Aug 2026), a change of +0.5%p from the first stored month.
As of Aug 2026, Korea won per U.S. dollar closing rate stands at 1,372.5 won in the stored series, −176.9 won from the first stored month.
Trailing 12 months · last reading each month · 8 of 12 months available
For Korea seasonally adjusted current account, the Jun 2026 stored reading is about 44.4 billion U.S. dollars; the gap from the first stored month is +35 billion U.S. dollars.
Trailing 12 months · last reading each month · 8 of 12 months available
The last stored reading for Korea customs exports is about 102.2 billion U.S. dollars (Jun 2026), a change of +36.3 billion U.S. dollars from the first stored month.
As of Jun 2026, Korea customs imports stands at about 66.1 billion U.S. dollars in the stored series, +9.7 billion U.S. dollars from the first stored month.
For Korea real GDP, seasonally adjusted, the Apr 2026 stored reading is about 600.4 trillion Korean won; the gap from the first stored month is +14.4 trillion Korean won.
The frozen data show Korea’s rate rising, trade and current account surpluses widening, real activity improving, and the won already rebounding into the baseline. Those conditions can improve dollar supply and local return support enough to extend the won’s recovery. If that persists, KRW per USD finishes below the threshold on the evaluation date.
03 · Hypothetical result to testKRW per USD closes below 1372.5 on 2026-10-30.
The “Hypothesis B: KRW per USD below 1372.5 on 2026-10-30.” case currently leads 78/100 to 72/100. The bars below show how the 19 evidence items split between support and opposition in each case.
Scores compare logical and evidentiary support; they are not probabilities. Both outcomes are Naly hypotheses.
Reader ballot
Read both cases and their counterevidence, then choose the one the evidence supports more strongly today.
Case A
KRW per USD closes above 1372.5 on 2026-10-30.
Case B
KRW per USD closes below 1372.5 on 2026-10-30.
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