Korea seasonally adjusted current accountBank of Korea · ECOS
Trailing 12 months · last reading each month · 7 of 12 months available
44,427.626,856.759,285.9
Oct 2025Mar 2026Sep 2026
As of Jun 2026, Korea seasonally adjusted current account stands at about 44.4 billion U.S. dollars in the stored series, +35.1 billion U.S. dollars from the first stored month.
Current reading44,427.6 million U.S. dollars · 2026-06-01H− supports · H+ opposes
Change from prior reading+6,306.5H− supports · H+ opposes
For Korea customs exports, the Jun 2026 stored reading is about 102.2 billion U.S. dollars; the gap from the first stored month is +42.7 billion U.S. dollars.
Current reading102,165,511 thousand U.S. dollars · 2026-06-01H− supports · H+ opposes
Change from prior reading+16.62%H− supports · H+ opposes
Trailing 12 months · last reading each month · 8 of 12 months available
119.990118.705117.420
Oct 2025Mar 2026Sep 2026
The last stored reading for Korea consumer price index is an index level of 119.77 (2020=100) (Jul 2026), a change of +2.35 points from the first stored month.
Current reading119.77 index (2020=100) · 2026-07-01H− supports · H+ opposes
Change from prior reading−0.18%H− supports · H+ opposes
Korea’s currency has recently firmed while the external surplus, exports, and softer consumer prices point to stronger foreign currency inflows and steadier policy expectations. That mix can lift won demand even with a higher U.S. policy rate. If it persists, the dollar should end weaker against the won by the evaluation date.
03 · Hypothetical result to test
KRW per USD closes below 1368.6 on 2026-09-30.
Assumptions
Export momentum holds through the month.
No new domestic risk shock hits Korea.
Invalidation signals
Korea’s trade or current account data weaken materially.
Fed communication turns clearly more hawkish.
H+66/100
Hypothesis 2: The dollar strengthens.
01 · Frozen evidenceBank of Korea base rateBank of Korea · ECOS
Trailing 12 months · last reading each month · 4 of 12 months available
32.752.5
Oct 2025Mar 2026Sep 2026
The last stored reading for Bank of Korea base rate is 3% (Aug 2026), a change of +0.5%p from the first stored month.
Current reading3.00% · 2026-08-29H− opposes · H+ supports
Change from prior reading+0 percentage pointsH− opposes · H+ supports
The last stored reading for U.S. nominal GDP is about 32.5 trillion U.S. dollars (Apr 2026), a change of +1.1 trillion U.S. dollars from the first stored month.
Current reading32,486.066 billion U.S. dollars, SAAR · 2026-04-01H− opposes · H+ supports
Change from prior reading+1.95%H− opposes · H+ supports
U.S. policy rates remain above Korea’s, U.S. inflation is still edging up, and U.S. output is expanding faster. That keeps dollar carry and growth appeal intact and can outweigh Korea’s trade support by pulling capital toward dollar assets. If that gap dominates, the dollar should end stronger against the won by the evaluation date.
03 · Hypothetical result to test
KRW per USD closes above 1368.6 on 2026-09-30.
Assumptions
U.S. yield demand stays firm.
Korean external gains do not accelerate further.
Invalidation signals
Korea’s won keeps appreciating despite steady U.S. rates.
U.S. inflation or activity data cool clearly.
The current weight of evidence
The “Hypothesis 1: The won strengthens.” case currently leads 74/100 to 66/100. The bars below show how the 16 evidence items split between support and opposition in each case.
Evidence
16
Evidence groups
8
Official sources
4
H−Hypothesis 1: The won strengthens.8 support · 8 oppose
H+Hypothesis 2: The dollar strengthens.8 support · 8 oppose
Scores compare logical and evidentiary support; they are not probabilities. Both outcomes are Naly hypotheses.
Reader ballot
Which case is better supported?
Read both cases and their counterevidence, then choose the one the evidence supports more strongly today.
Case A
Hypothesis 1: The won strengthens.
KRW per USD closes below 1368.6 on 2026-09-30.
Case B
Hypothesis 2: The dollar strengthens.
KRW per USD closes above 1368.6 on 2026-09-30.
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