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Korea's trade and output improved, but firm U.S. yields still challenge the won.
The won is balancing Korea's export momentum against a still-firm U.S. dollar backdrop.
The sections below walk through how each case reads the same frozen evidence, with the stored readings and charts alongside.
Currently better supported
The last stored reading for Korea won per U.S. dollar closing rate is 1,372.5 won (Aug 2026), a change of −176.9 won from the first stored month.
Trailing 12 months · last reading each month · 8 of 12 months available
As of Jun 2026, Korea seasonally adjusted current account stands at about 44.4 billion U.S. dollars in the stored series, +35 billion U.S. dollars from the first stored month.
Trailing 12 months · last reading each month · 8 of 12 months available
For Korea customs exports, the Jun 2026 stored reading is about 102.2 billion U.S. dollars; the gap from the first stored month is +36.3 billion U.S. dollars.
The last stored reading for Korea customs imports is about 66.1 billion U.S. dollars (Jun 2026), a change of +9.7 billion U.S. dollars from the first stored month.
As of Apr 2026, Korea real GDP, seasonally adjusted stands at about 600.4 trillion Korean won in the stored series, +14.4 trillion Korean won from the first stored month.
Frozen data show the won firming while Korea's surplus, trade, and output improved. Those flows can increase demand for won assets and offset the dollar's yield edge. If that channel holds, the dollar buys fewer won by the evaluation date.
03 · Hypothetical result to testBy 2026-09-30, KRW per USD closes below 1372.5.
Trailing 12 months · last reading each month · 4 of 12 months available
The last stored reading for Effective federal funds rate is 3.63% (Aug 2026), a change of +0.01%p from the first stored month.
Trailing 12 months · monthly release · 10 of 12 months available
As of Jul 2026, U.S. consumer prices stands at an index level of 332.813 (1982–84=100) in the stored series, +8.568 points from the first stored month.
U.S. 7-year Treasury auction ($99.928654) is filed among this case's supporting evidence.
The last stored reading for U.S. nominal GDP is about 32.5 trillion U.S. dollars (Apr 2026), a change of +1.1 trillion U.S. dollars from the first stored month.
Frozen data also show firm U.S. rates, rising prices, bigger output, and a high Treasury auction yield. That mix can keep dollar carry attractive and blunt Korea's trade support. If it dominates, the dollar buys more won by the evaluation date.
03 · Hypothetical result to testBy 2026-09-30, KRW per USD closes above 1372.5.
The “Hypothesis A: the won extends gains.” case currently leads 78/100 to 72/100. The bars below show how the 17 evidence items split between support and opposition in each case.
Scores compare logical and evidentiary support; they are not probabilities. Both outcomes are Naly hypotheses.
Reader ballot
Read both cases and their counterevidence, then choose the one the evidence supports more strongly today.
Case A
By 2026-09-30, KRW per USD closes below 1372.5.
Case B
By 2026-09-30, KRW per USD closes above 1372.5.
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