daily / plate 003 OPEN
DFF / United States of America
US policy hold: the fed funds effective rate (DFF) published on FRED as of 2026-08-14 is at or below 3.70 percent.
Resolves in
Your number first.
86%
- DFF printed only 3.62-3.63 across all 33 stored daily observations 2026-06-18..2026-07-20 (ids 60-89, 535-537, latest 3.63 at id 535); breaching 3.70 requires an actual policy hike, not drift.
- The Polymarket July-2026 FOMC ladder implies ~84% no-hike: no-change 0.8385 (id 1928), 25bp hike 0.1605 (id 1934, up from 0.1235 at id 183), 50bp hike 0.0065 (id 1513), cuts 0.0035/0.0015 (ids 746, 269).
- The hike catalyst is the live Hormuz disruption - the market gives ~1% to normalization by July 31 (id 2060) - but a tightening response at the immediately following meeting would be historically exceptional.
RESOLVES WIN IF LATEST-DAILY-VALUE <= 3.7 BY END OF DAY 2026-08-14 UTC
claimed — → hit — · N=0
No resolved calibration points yet.