Calm-funding ETH week holds: Binance ETHUSDT 1-minute close at or before 2026-08-07T23:59:59.999Z is at or above 1823.01, avoiding a 4.5 percent drawdown from the cited 2026-07-31 close of 1908.91.

Resolves in —

Your number first.

50%

86%

Price history fallback table
Time	Open	High	Low	Close

Cited ETHUSDT funding study (2026-07-31): last print 0.0057 percent per ~8h, 30-day mean 0.0038 percent, range -0.0037 to 0.0100 percent, zero 30-day readings at or beyond +/-0.05 percent: calm, uncrowded leverage.
Across the 30 cited CBETHUSD daily closes 2026-07-01 to 2026-07-30, 0 of 23 rolling 7-day windows fell more than 4.5 percent (worst -1.4 percent); 1823.01 is the 4.5 percent line under the cited 2026-07-31 ETHUSDT close of 1908.91.
Cited ETHUSDT study (2026-07-31): last close 1908.91 with a +18.6 percent 30-session change, but 63/90-session changes of -5.2/-17.6 percent and a 42.4 percent 21-session drawdown rate keep regime caution warranted.

RESOLVES WIN IF CLOSE >= 1823.01 BY END OF DAY 2026-08-07 UTC

FROZENsha256:a850fc219656eca92bd3a8920732f347150489a85f478ee73740441943b126f4

What kills this call

Fails on an exogenous shock: an exchange, ETF, or macro headline can push ETH through a 4.5 percent weekly line without prior funding stress, and the funding study measures positioning cost, not spot flows, so a spot-led selloff gives no early warning. The 23-window base-rate sample covers one rising month and understates tail frequency; the cited 365-session study's 42.4 percent 21-session drawdown rate and -5.2/-17.6 percent 63/90-session changes say the medium-term regime remains drawdown-prone, and the cited last funding print at the 73rd percentile of the window's absolute rates shows leverage demand drifting up from calm.

ETHUSDT closes below 1865.96 before 2026-08-07, consuming more than half of the 4.5 percent buffer from the cited 2026-07-31 close of 1908.91
A Binance ETHUSDT funding print at or beyond +/-0.05 percent per 8h interval, ending the cited calm-leverage regime
A single-session ETHUSDT move beyond 4 percent in either direction before resolution

claimed — → hit — · N=0

No resolved calibration points yet.

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