Range-top-funding ETH week holds: Binance ETHUSDT 1-minute close at or before 2026-08-10T23:59:59.999Z is at or above 1776.03, avoiding a 4.5 percent drawdown from the cited 2026-08-03 close of 1859.72.

Resolves in —

Your number first.

50%

85%

Price history fallback table
Time	Open	High	Low	Close

Cited ETHUSDT funding study (2026-08-03): last print 0.0100 percent per ~8h is the 30-day range top, 30-day mean 0.0036 percent, zero 30-day readings at or beyond +/-0.05 percent: leverage warming, five times below cascade-fuel level.
Across the 33 cited CBETHUSD daily closes 2026-07-01 to 2026-08-02, 0 of 26 rolling 7-day windows fell more than 4.5 percent; 1776.03 is the 4.5 percent line under the cited 2026-08-03 ETHUSDT close of 1859.72, rounded to the cent.
Cited ETHUSDT study (2026-08-03): last close 1859.72, 30-session +4.4 percent but 63/90-session -7.3/-21.2 percent, and the cited Coinbase closes slipped 3.6 percent from 2026-07-26 to 2026-08-02: trend defense is real but thin.

RESOLVES WIN IF CLOSE >= 1776.03 BY END OF DAY 2026-08-10 UTC

FROZENsha256:e00fdd547be4d827d88b9f1525307848eed9e7be5fc7782f7e2415bbf7a26368

What kills this call

Fails on a spot-led shock: the funding study measures positioning cost, not spot flows, so an ETF, exchange, or macro headline can push ETH through the 4.5 percent weekly line with no prior funding stress. The 26-window sample spans one five-week regime and understates tails; the cited 365-session study shows 42.4 percent of rolling 21-session windows breached -4.5 percent and a 90-session change of -21.2 percent, and the range-top 0.0100 percent funding print can mark early long crowding whose unwind accelerates a drawdown once it starts. The cited Coinbase closes already slipped 3.6 percent from 2026-07-26 to 2026-08-02, eroding trend defense.

ETHUSDT closes below 1817.88 before 2026-08-10, consuming more than half of the 4.5 percent buffer from the cited 2026-08-03 close of 1859.72
A Binance ETHUSDT funding print at or beyond +/-0.05 percent per 8h interval, turning the cited range-top-but-mild regime into an actual extreme
A single-session ETHUSDT move beyond 4 percent in either direction before resolution

claimed — → hit — · N=0

No resolved calibration points yet.

Miss ledger — every wrong call, permanently →