Leverage-flush ETH week holds: Binance ETHUSDT 1-minute close at or before 2026-08-15T23:59:59.999Z is at or above 1832.45, avoiding a 4.5 percent drawdown from the cited 2026-08-08 close of 1918.80.

Confidence84%

Resolves in —

Price history fallback table
Time	Open	High	Low	Close

Cited ETHUSDT funding study (2026-08-08): last print 0.0000 percent per ~8h, the 1st percentile of 500 readings' absolute rates, 30-day mean 0.0031 percent, zero 30-day readings at or beyond +/-0.05 percent: leverage is fully flushed.
Over the 38 cited CBETHUSD closes 2026-07-01 to 2026-08-07, 0 of 31 rolling 7-day windows fell more than 4.5 percent (worst -3.64); 1832.45 is the 4.5 percent line under the cited 2026-08-08 close of 1918.80, rounded to the cent.
Cited ETHUSDT OHLC study (2026-08-08): last close 1918.80, 30-session +9.9 and 63-session +22.2 percent, but 90-session -19.1 percent and 42.4 percent of 21-session windows breached -4.5 percent: trend is real, tails are fat.

RESOLVES WIN IF CLOSE >= 1832.45 BY END OF DAY 2026-08-15 UTC

FROZENsha256:ef1425004fb23282e8014c4aa9723fdf041fdc687f3d03a34a649f545a87e286

What kills this call

Fails on a spot-led shock: the funding study measures positioning cost, not spot flows, so an ETF, exchange, or macro headline can push ETH through the 4.5 percent weekly line with no prior funding stress. The 31-window sample spans one five-and-a-half-week regime and understates tails; the cited 365-session study shows 42.4 percent of rolling 21-session windows breached -4.5 percent and a 90-session change of -19.1 percent. A zero funding print can also mark demand exhaustion at the top of a +9.9 percent 30-session advance, where thin weekend liquidity turns an ordinary pullback into a breach.

ETHUSDT perpetual funding prints at or beyond +/-0.05 percent per 8h interval (cascade fuel returns)
Binance ETHUSDT daily close below 1870 before 2026-08-12 (buffer halved mid-window)
An exchange, ETF, or macro headline shock that moves ETH spot more than 3 percent in a day

No resolved predictions yet · track record starts after the first outcome

No resolved calibration points yet.

Miss ledger — every wrong call, permanently →