Pharma rotation holds: LLY closes at or above 1138.30 on 2026-09-04, avoiding a 4.5 percent drawdown from the cited 2026-08-06 close of 1191.94.

Confidence85%

Resolves in —

Price history fallback table
Time	Open	High	Low	Close
2026-05-07T13:30:00.000Z	985.3699951171875	989	967.0999755859375	974.9600219726562
2026-05-08T13:30:00.000Z	974.0700073242188	980	947.510009765625	948.4500122070312
2026-05-11T13:30:00.000Z	949	995	943.260009765625	966.989990234375
2026-05-12T13:30:00.000Z	974.4400024414062	997.52001953125	971.1799926757812	989.8699951171875
2026-05-13T13:30:00.000Z	994.75	1022.8200073242188	992	1015.75
2026-05-14T13:30:00.000Z	1017.489990234375	1018.1699829101562	996.010009765625	1006.7000122070312
2026-05-15T13:30:00.000Z	1006.97998046875	1014.3800048828125	997.4099731445312	1004.9199829101562
2026-05-18T13:30:00.000Z	1000.6099853515625	1003	978.8699951171875	988.0900268554688
2026-05-19T13:30:00.000Z	989.510009765625	1021.7999877929688	984.5999755859375	1021.4099731445312
2026-05-20T13:30:00.000Z	1024.989990234375	1037.8800048828125	1003.6900024414062	1018.8699951171875
2026-05-21T13:30:00.000Z	1024.300048828125	1047.300048828125	1022	1041.6500244140625
2026-05-22T13:30:00.000Z	1049.81005859375	1070.3399658203125	1047.0699462890625	1065
2026-05-26T13:30:00.000Z	1075	1082	1060.3599853515625	1064.739990234375
2026-05-27T13:30:00.000Z	1072.260009765625	1093	1069.9000244140625	1082.9200439453125
2026-05-28T13:30:00.000Z	1096.6400146484375	1149.0999755859375	1092.010009765625	1126.800048828125
2026-05-29T13:30:00.000Z	1127	1132.6600341796875	1089.010009765625	1105
2026-06-01T13:30:00.000Z	1095	1106.1700439453125	1071.5999755859375	1082.199951171875
2026-06-02T13:30:00.000Z	1067.3699951171875	1078.219970703125	1052.1500244140625	1064.1500244140625
2026-06-03T13:30:00.000Z	1059.5	1093.280029296875	1053.510009765625	1078.780029296875
2026-06-04T13:30:00.000Z	1108.5999755859375	1140.4599609375	1101.6199951171875	1125.27001953125
2026-06-05T13:30:00.000Z	1142.969970703125	1166.2900390625	1131.030029296875	1131.4200439453125
2026-06-08T13:30:00.000Z	1159	1182.72998046875	1143.5999755859375	1149.1500244140625
2026-06-09T13:30:00.000Z	1165	1174.5999755859375	1137.75	1144.6800537109375
2026-06-10T13:30:00.000Z	1152.5	1166.4200439453125	1133.530029296875	1136.3699951171875
2026-06-11T13:30:00.000Z	1139.7099609375	1170.1199951171875	1125.6400146484375	1160.949951171875
2026-06-12T13:30:00.000Z	1165	1169.989990234375	1132.81005859375	1133
2026-06-15T13:30:00.000Z	1134	1137.489990234375	1112.010009765625	1129.3499755859375
2026-06-16T13:30:00.000Z	1138.8199462890625	1146.68994140625	1115.5	1122.5
2026-06-17T13:30:00.000Z	1116.699951171875	1121.489990234375	1104.9000244140625	1112
2026-06-18T13:30:00.000Z	1120.489990234375	1122.3299560546875	1088.6600341796875	1098.5699462890625
2026-06-22T13:30:00.000Z	1112.239990234375	1119.449951171875	1093.1500244140625	1102.0799560546875
2026-06-23T13:30:00.000Z	1117	1122.02001953125	1079.219970703125	1107.0799560546875
2026-06-24T13:30:00.000Z	1129.4100341796875	1135.1400146484375	1100.97998046875	1117.260009765625
2026-06-25T13:30:00.000Z	1126.989990234375	1145.4300537109375	1114	1127.68994140625
2026-06-26T13:30:00.000Z	1128.800048828125	1215.760009765625	1128	1208.1199951171875
2026-06-29T13:30:00.000Z	1222.780029296875	1238	1203.1400146484375	1229.9300537109375
2026-06-30T13:30:00.000Z	1228.8800048828125	1230.050048828125	1190.199951171875	1199.4300537109375
2026-07-01T13:30:00.000Z	1217.510009765625	1217.510009765625	1173.9300537109375	1191.739990234375
2026-07-02T13:30:00.000Z	1193.010009765625	1232	1180.300048828125	1213.9100341796875
2026-07-06T13:30:00.000Z	1208	1213.7900390625	1183.3399658203125	1200.06005859375
2026-07-07T13:30:00.000Z	1232.8800048828125	1249.449951171875	1222.77001953125	1235.56005859375
2026-07-08T13:30:00.000Z	1221.0999755859375	1241.8900146484375	1204.1600341796875	1215.8299560546875
2026-07-09T13:30:00.000Z	1211.6400146484375	1230	1200.3699951171875	1216.949951171875
2026-07-10T13:30:00.000Z	1210.31005859375	1212.9599609375	1178.3199462890625	1188.5799560546875
2026-07-13T13:30:00.000Z	1180.1099853515625	1196.2900390625	1166.010009765625	1181.8699951171875
2026-07-14T13:30:00.000Z	1166.010009765625	1166.010009765625	1140.739990234375	1152.5400390625
2026-07-15T13:30:00.000Z	1145.5	1160.8199462890625	1134.4000244140625	1156.6300048828125
2026-07-16T13:30:00.000Z	1162.27001953125	1189.0699462890625	1141.199951171875	1169.1700439453125
2026-07-17T13:30:00.000Z	1159.449951171875	1187.949951171875	1151.010009765625	1179.1099853515625
2026-07-20T13:30:00.000Z	1179.6500244140625	1187.1199951171875	1144.4300537109375	1146.9000244140625
2026-07-21T13:30:00.000Z	1143	1177.5799560546875	1139	1175.4100341796875
2026-07-22T13:30:00.000Z	1173.9100341796875	1175	1153.5	1163.010009765625
2026-07-23T13:30:00.000Z	1146.6199951171875	1189.5899658203125	1141.780029296875	1185.8699951171875
2026-07-24T13:30:00.000Z	1194.3499755859375	1206.93994140625	1187.5	1196.030029296875
2026-07-27T13:30:00.000Z	1201	1205.050048828125	1183.449951171875	1197.530029296875
2026-07-28T13:30:00.000Z	1217.5999755859375	1232	1205.010009765625	1220.6600341796875
2026-07-29T13:30:00.000Z	1215.1800537109375	1229.18994140625	1204.800048828125	1210.02001953125
2026-07-30T13:30:00.000Z	1174.030029296875	1186.6500244140625	1153.1400146484375	1154.969970703125
2026-07-31T13:30:00.000Z	1148.510009765625	1150.6300048828125	1119	1148.8399658203125
2026-08-03T13:30:00.000Z	1152	1161.93994140625	1109.1500244140625	1121.3599853515625
2026-08-04T13:30:00.000Z	1117.3800048828125	1135.8299560546875	1109.1600341796875	1115.6800537109375
2026-08-05T13:30:00.000Z	1174	1216.93994140625	1138.4300537109375	1169.8599853515625
2026-08-06T13:30:00.000Z	1196.550048828125	1230.8800048828125	1173.5	1191.93994140625

Cited 251-session studies ending 2026-08-06: LLY +6.7/+20.8 percent over 30/63 sessions versus ^GSPC +4.8/+4.7 percent — pharma leads the index at both windows.
Over the same windows CAT trails: -13.8 percent over 30 sessions and -7.5 over 63 against the index's +4.8/+4.7 — the outflow side of the rotation into pharma.
In the cited LLY study only 14.8 percent of rolling 21-session windows closed 4.5 percent or more below their start; threshold 1138.30 is the 4.5 percent drawdown line below the 2026-08-06 close of 1191.94, rounded to the cent.

RESOLVES WIN IF CLOSE >= 1138.3 BY 2026-09-04 20:00 UTC

FROZENsha256:80b8404a3fffeea07b7dac22d5c09ba5fcc8afd14d57a232fd6442f60a904802

What kills this call

Fails on a pharma-specific shock: a drug-safety event, a trial readout, or a US drug-pricing policy headline can gap LLY through -4.5 percent in one or two sessions, the path 14.8 percent of cited windows took unconditionally. The cited base-rate sample is a single 251-session span whose 90-session change is +35.7 percent — a rising regime with no conditioning on extension, which is exactly the state this card is written from — and the cited 47.5 percent Polymarket prior on a 25 bps September Fed hike is a live tape-wide repricing risk inside the window.

LLY closes below 1165.12 before 2026-09-04, consuming more than half of the 4.5 percent drawdown buffer below the cited 2026-08-06 close of 1191.94
A single-session LLY move beyond 4 percent in either direction before resolution
CAT closing at or above 895.52 before resolution, a 4.5 percent rally from its cited 2026-08-06 close of 856.96 that would reverse the industrials outflow leg of the rotation

No resolved predictions yet · track record starts after the first outcome

No resolved calibration points yet.

Miss ledger — every wrong call, permanently →