Term-premium repricing caps the Nasdaq rebound: Nasdaq-100 E-mini continuous futures NQ=F close at or below 29682.44 on 2026-08-31, avoiding a 4.5 percent rally from the 2026-07-31 close of 28404.25.

Resolves in —

Your number first.

50%

76%

Downside26,920.1 index points

Base29,682.4 index points

Upside31,166.6 index points

T10Y2Y widened from 0.31 on 2026-06-26 to 0.47 on 2026-07-31, the widest reading of the cited window, while the 2-year yield rose only 16 bp to a high of 4.37 — the steepening is long-end-led.
DGS10 rose 30 bp from 4.38 on 2026-06-26 to 4.68 on 2026-07-30, peaking at 4.71 on 2026-07-23, raising discount rates on the long-duration cash flows that dominate the Nasdaq-100.
In the cited 251-session NQ=F study ending 2026-07-31, 24.8 percent of rolling 21-session windows closed 4.5 percent or more above their start; the claim window 2026-07-31 to 2026-08-31 spans exactly 21 trading sessions.

RESOLVES WIN IF CLOSE <= 29682.44 BY 2026-08-31 20:00 UTC

claimed — → hit — · N=0

No resolved calibration points yet.