AI-chip laggard stays capped: NVDA closes at or below 209.78 on 2026-08-31, failing to rally 4.5 percent from the cited 2026-07-31 close of 200.75.

Resolves in —

Your number first.

50%

66%

Price history fallback table
Time	Open	High	Low	Close
2026-05-01T13:30:00.000Z	201.27999877929688	203	197.1199951171875	198.4499969482422
2026-05-04T13:30:00.000Z	199.5	201.72999572753906	194.74000549316406	198.47999572753906
2026-05-05T13:30:00.000Z	199.3000030517578	200.24000549316406	196.02999877929688	196.5
2026-05-06T13:30:00.000Z	199.88999938964844	208.27000427246094	198.61000061035156	207.8300018310547
2026-05-07T13:30:00.000Z	208.33999633789062	214.1999969482422	206.5	211.5
2026-05-08T13:30:00.000Z	213.02999877929688	217.8000030517578	212.88999938964844	215.1999969482422
2026-05-11T13:30:00.000Z	214.0399932861328	222.3000030517578	213.88999938964844	219.44000244140625
2026-05-12T13:30:00.000Z	218.5500030517578	223.75	214.9199981689453	220.77999877929688
2026-05-13T13:30:00.000Z	224.92999267578125	227.83999633789062	221.57000732421875	225.8300018310547
2026-05-14T13:30:00.000Z	229.85000610351562	236.5399932861328	229.3000030517578	235.74000549316406
2026-05-15T13:30:00.000Z	229.75999450683594	231.5	224.24000549316406	225.32000732421875
2026-05-18T13:30:00.000Z	229.8699951171875	230	218.3699951171875	222.32000732421875
2026-05-19T13:30:00.000Z	219.6199951171875	224.47999572753906	217.91000366210938	220.61000061035156
2026-05-20T13:30:00.000Z	223.17999267578125	226.1300048828125	220.5	223.47000122070312
2026-05-21T13:30:00.000Z	222.2899932861328	227.39999389648438	217.92999267578125	219.50999450683594
2026-05-22T13:30:00.000Z	220.89999389648438	221.00999450683594	214.8000030517578	215.3300018310547
2026-05-26T13:30:00.000Z	216.5399932861328	218.17999267578125	212	214.86000061035156
2026-05-27T13:30:00.000Z	214.1199951171875	214.14999389648438	208.77999877929688	212.60000610351562
2026-05-28T13:30:00.000Z	211.27999877929688	215.52000427246094	211.22000122070312	214.25
2026-05-29T13:30:00.000Z	214.5800018310547	217.86000061035156	211.1300048828125	211.13999938964844
2026-06-01T13:30:00.000Z	215.72999572753906	224.8699951171875	215.6999969482422	224.36000061035156
2026-06-02T13:30:00.000Z	227.17999267578125	232.27999877929688	221.35000610351562	222.82000732421875
2026-06-03T13:30:00.000Z	221.72000122070312	222.82000732421875	214.50999450683594	214.75
2026-06-04T13:30:00.000Z	213.91000366210938	221.60000610351562	210.97000122070312	218.66000366210938
2026-06-05T13:30:00.000Z	214.52999877929688	214.8699951171875	204.3300018310547	205.10000610351562
2026-06-08T13:30:00.000Z	210.17999267578125	210.47000122070312	206	208.63999938964844
2026-06-09T13:30:00.000Z	210.6199951171875	211.39999389648438	199.33999633789062	208.19000244140625
2026-06-10T13:30:00.000Z	204.42999267578125	207.22000122070312	199.9199981689453	200.4199981689453
2026-06-11T13:30:00.000Z	201.49000549316406	205.66000366210938	199.5399932861328	204.8699951171875
2026-06-12T13:30:00.000Z	204.86000061035156	207.07000732421875	203.44000244140625	205.19000244140625
2026-06-15T13:30:00.000Z	208.9199981689453	212.7100067138672	208.33999633789062	212.4499969482422
2026-06-16T13:30:00.000Z	211.17999267578125	211.49000549316406	207.2899932861328	207.41000366210938
2026-06-17T13:30:00.000Z	208.52999877929688	209.2100067138672	203.0800018310547	204.64999389648438
2026-06-18T13:30:00.000Z	207.3300018310547	211.38999938964844	206.5	210.69000244140625
2026-06-22T13:30:00.000Z	211.44000244140625	213.99000549316406	207.72000122070312	208.64999389648438
2026-06-23T13:30:00.000Z	202.1699981689453	203.77000427246094	200	200.0399932861328
2026-06-24T13:30:00.000Z	200.1199951171875	201.6699981689453	196.5800018310547	199
2026-06-25T13:30:00.000Z	200.0800018310547	200.8000030517578	192.1300048828125	195.74000549316406
2026-06-26T13:30:00.000Z	193.1199951171875	195.5500030517578	191.22000122070312	192.52999877929688
2026-06-29T13:30:00.000Z	193.85000610351562	196.17999267578125	189.8000030517578	194.97000122070312
2026-06-30T13:30:00.000Z	197.24000549316406	200.6300048828125	195.11000061035156	200.08999633789062
2026-07-01T13:30:00.000Z	196.1999969482422	199.85000610351562	193.4499969482422	197.5800018310547
2026-07-02T13:30:00.000Z	197.13999938964844	200.05999755859375	192.35000610351562	194.8300018310547
2026-07-06T13:30:00.000Z	194.4199981689453	197.5500030517578	193.99000549316406	195.5500030517578
2026-07-07T13:30:00.000Z	192.3699951171875	198.41000366210938	191.13999938964844	196.92999267578125
2026-07-08T13:30:00.000Z	195.17999267578125	205.16000366210938	195.05999755859375	204.1199951171875
2026-07-09T13:30:00.000Z	204.4600067138672	204.58999633789062	198.9600067138672	202.77999877929688
2026-07-10T13:30:00.000Z	202	211	201.9199981689453	210.9600067138672
2026-07-13T13:30:00.000Z	208.5399932861328	210.57000732421875	203	203.52999877929688
2026-07-14T13:30:00.000Z	208.1999969482422	212.5500030517578	203.8000030517578	211.8000030517578
2026-07-15T13:30:00.000Z	211.9600067138672	213.80999755859375	206.0399932861328	212.5
2026-07-16T13:30:00.000Z	210.1699981689453	211.0800018310547	205.85000610351562	207.39999389648438
2026-07-17T13:30:00.000Z	202.63999938964844	206.64999389648438	197.97000122070312	202.80999755859375
2026-07-20T13:30:00.000Z	205.8699951171875	207.74000549316406	202.27999877929688	203.27999877929688
2026-07-21T13:30:00.000Z	207.5399932861328	208.64999389648438	204.00999450683594	207.2899932861328
2026-07-22T13:30:00.000Z	205.80999755859375	214.38999938964844	204.9499969482422	212.05999755859375
2026-07-23T13:30:00.000Z	209.4600067138672	210.8699951171875	205.9600067138672	208.75999450683594
2026-07-24T13:30:00.000Z	207.4499969482422	211.91000366210938	204.80999755859375	206.83999633789062
2026-07-27T13:30:00.000Z	208.1999969482422	208.75	195.44000244140625	196.50999450683594
2026-07-28T13:30:00.000Z	195	198.6999969482422	192.74000549316406	197.00999450683594
2026-07-29T13:30:00.000Z	195.85000610351562	197.07000732421875	190.00999450683594	190.00999450683594
2026-07-30T13:30:00.000Z	193.4499969482422	197.25	191.52000427246094	195.0399932861328
2026-07-31T13:30:00.000Z	198.44000244140625	202	194.9499969482422	200.75

Cited 251-session studies ending 2026-07-31: JPM +12.3/+21.3 and GS +10.2/+22.5 percent over 63/90 sessions versus ^GSPC +3.9/+13.8 percent — financials lead the index at both windows.
Over the same 63 sessions AI chips trail: NVDA +0.6 and AVGO -6.7 percent against the index's +3.9 percent — the outflow side of the rotation into financials.
In the cited NVDA study only 29.1 percent of rolling 21-session windows closed 4.5 percent or more above their start; threshold 209.78 is the 4.5 percent rally line above the 2026-07-31 close of 200.75, rounded to the cent.

RESOLVES WIN IF CLOSE <= 209.78 BY 2026-08-31 20:00 UTC

FROZENsha256:8bfa4e8b7b81f0a611679f3d9bdb568fb092af24ccd5245132b4e03db09fd50a

What kills this call

Fails on an AI-chip re-rally: megacap software already ripped (MSFT +22.6 percent over the cited 30 sessions), and a broadening of that bid back into AI chips — or an NVDA-specific catalyst such as an earnings surprise or AI-capex headline inside the 21-session window — can gap the stock through +4.5 percent in one or two sessions, the path 29.1 percent of cited windows took. The cited base-rate sample is a single 251-session span whose 90-session change is +14.3 percent, a rising regime with no conditioning on flat 30/63-session states, which is exactly the state this card is written from.

NVDA closes above 205.27 before 2026-08-31, consuming more than half of the 4.5 percent rally buffer above the cited 200.75 close
A single-session NVDA move beyond 4 percent in either direction before resolution
JPM or GS closing 4.5 percent or more below their cited 2026-07-31 closes of 351.79 and 1018.38, breaking the financials leg of the rotation

claimed — → hit — · N=0

No resolved calibration points yet.

Miss ledger — every wrong call, permanently →