daily / plate 005 OPEN
SPY 770 PUT
SPY260904P00770000, the SPY 2026-09-04 770 put, closes at or below 8.62 on 2026-08-14 — at or under its cited 2026-08-07 last trade — because five sessions of time decay outweigh any SPY downside smaller than the 0.36 percent breakeven decline.
Confidence62%
Resolves in
- Cited chain at the 2026-08-07 close: SPY 773.26; SPY260904P00770000 last 8.62, bid 8.58, ask 8.66, open interest 3498, quoted IV 11.8 percent — out of the money, so the premium is entirely time value.
- Black-Scholes at the quoted 11.8 percent IV with zero rate: an unchanged spot leaves the put near 7.33 on 2026-08-14 (15 sessions to expiry); it recovers to 8.62 only if SPY falls to about 770.46, a 0.36 percent five-session decline.
- Cited 251-session SPY study: +5.3 percent over 30 sessions, and rolling 21-session windows beyond plus-or-minus 4.5 percent split 15.7 percent rallies versus 2.6 percent drawdowns — an upside-skewed tape.
RESOLVES WIN IF CLOSE <= 8.62 BY 2026-08-14 20:00 UTC
No resolved predictions yet · track record starts after the first outcome
No resolved calibration points yet.