daily / plate 009 OPEN
T10YIE / United States of America
Anchored-expectations month holds: the 10-year breakeven inflation rate (T10YIE) published on FRED as of 2026-08-31 is at or below 2.45 percent.
Resolves in
Your number first.
88%
- All 29 stored T10YIE prints 2026-06-22..2026-07-31 (ids 5888-5916) lie in 2.18-2.28 with no one-day move above 6bp; a 2.45 breach needs a 17bp jump past the window maximum, 1.7x the full span.
- June 2026 CPI fell 0.42 percent MoM (332.568 vs 333.979) and YoY eased to 3.46 from May's 4.17 percent (ids 2, 3, 13, 14); the latest realized-inflation impulse is decelerating, not accelerating.
- Polymarket prices the 25bp September hike leg at 59.5 percent (id 5958); the priced policy response to above-target inflation is tightening, which works against long-horizon expectation drift.
RESOLVES WIN IF LATEST-DAILY-VALUE <= 2.45 BY END OF DAY 2026-08-31 UTC
claimed — → hit — · N=0
No resolved calibration points yet.