Accuracy
T1 trust surface for verified prediction performance. Mispricing metrics below use answer-flip calls with a minimum 20-point component score.
Overall Performance
Total Predictions
118
63 resolved · 111 qualified · 55 pending
Naly Accuracy
38%
24/63 correct
Market Accuracy
59%
33/56 correct
Avg Component
40.4pp
36 same-side + 6 low-component flips excluded · 3 overdue
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Last 30 Days
46%accuracy (21/46 correct)
Accuracy by Category
politics
34%
11/32 correct
stock
56%
10/18 correct
crypto
0%
0/2 correct
sports
50%
1/2 correct
geopolitics
50%
1/2 correct
Calibration
Favored-answer probability vs actual outcome frequency on qualified answer-flip calls. Perfect calibration means predicted and actual bars are equal.
40-60%n=11
Predicted
56%
Actual
9%
60-80%n=19
Predicted
66%
Actual
42%
80-100%n=26
Predicted
91%
Actual
54%
Recent Resolutions
Will China announce rare earth export relief by May 22?
geopolitics
Naly View
Yes 58%
Market View
No 81%
Component
40pp
Result
Wrong
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?
geopolitics
Naly View
Yes 95%
Market View
No 66%
Component
62pp
Result
Correct
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?
politics
Naly View
Yes 80%
Market View
No 77%
Component
57pp
Result
Wrong
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?
politics
Naly View
Yes 60%
Market View
No 68%
Component
28pp
Result
Correct
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?
politics
Naly View
Yes 99%
Market View
No 82%
Component
81pp
Result
Wrong
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?
politics
Naly View
Yes 63%
Market View
No 67%
Component
30pp
Result
Wrong
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?
politics
Naly View
Yes 84%
Market View
No 72%
Component
56pp
Result
Correct
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?
politics
Naly View
No 82%
Market View
Yes 54%
Component
36pp
Result
Wrong
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
politics
Naly View
No 73%
Market View
Yes 69%
Component
42pp
Result
Wrong
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?
politics
Naly View
No 60%
Market View
Yes 82%
Component
42pp
Result
Wrong
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?
politics
Naly View
Yes 56%
Market View
No 73%
Component
29pp
Result
Wrong
Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?
politics
Naly View
No 58%
Market View
Yes 73%
Component
31pp
Result
Wrong
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?
politics
Naly View
Yes 82%
Market View
No 52%
Component
34pp
Result
Wrong
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?
politics
Naly View
No 85%
Market View
Yes 52%
Component
37pp
Result
Wrong
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?
politics
Naly View
No 80%
Market View
Yes 55%
Component
35pp
Result
Wrong
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?
politics
Naly View
Yes 80%
Market View
No 56%
Component
36pp
Result
Wrong
Will Tesla reach $420 in April?
stock
Naly View
No 62%
Market View
Yes 60%
Component
22pp
Result
Correct
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?
politics
Naly View
No 75%
Market View
Yes 52%
Component
27pp
Result
Correct
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?
politics
Naly View
No 82%
Market View
Yes 52%
Component
34pp
Result
Correct
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?
politics
Naly View
No 88%
Market View
Yes 54%
Component
42pp
Result
Correct
| Event | Naly View | Market View | Component | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China announce rare earth export relief by May 22?geopolitics | Yes 58% | No 81% | 40pp | Wrong |
| Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?geopolitics | Yes 95% | No 66% | 62pp | Correct |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?politics | Yes 80% | No 77% | 57pp | Wrong |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?politics | Yes 60% | No 68% | 28pp | Correct |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?politics | Yes 99% | No 82% | 81pp | Wrong |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?politics | Yes 63% | No 67% | 30pp | Wrong |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?politics | Yes 84% | No 72% | 56pp | Correct |
| Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?politics | No 82% | Yes 54% | 36pp | Wrong |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?politics | No 73% | Yes 69% | 42pp | Wrong |
| Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?politics | No 60% | Yes 82% | 42pp | Wrong |
| Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?politics | Yes 56% | No 73% | 29pp | Wrong |
| Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?politics | No 58% | Yes 73% | 31pp | Wrong |
| Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?politics | Yes 82% | No 52% | 34pp | Wrong |
| Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?politics | No 85% | Yes 52% | 37pp | Wrong |
| Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?politics | No 80% | Yes 55% | 35pp | Wrong |
| Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?politics | Yes 80% | No 56% | 36pp | Wrong |
| Will Tesla reach $420 in April?stock | No 62% | Yes 60% | 22pp | Correct |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?politics | No 75% | Yes 52% | 27pp | Correct |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?politics | No 82% | Yes 52% | 34pp | Correct |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?politics | No 88% | Yes 54% | 42pp | Correct |