June 2026 resolved 44 qualified calls: Naly 13/44 (30%), Brier 0.395. Calibration and Brier score are updated at /predictions/scorecard; this recap summarises only the answer-flip events with a component score of at least 20 that resolved between June 1 and June-end UTC.
- Qualified resolutions: 44 (Naly 13 correct, Polymarket 31 correct on the same set).
- Brier score: Naly 0.395, Polymarket 0.205. Lower is better; 0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip.
- Best call: Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? — component score 73, Naly top answer "No" resolved No.
- Worst call: Iran leadership change by May 31? — component score 82, Naly top answer "Yes" resolved No.
Brier and Calibration
This month we evaluated 44 qualified answer-flip predictions. Each Brier score below is the mean of (favored-answer probability − actual outcome)².
| Forecaster | Brier | Lower is better |
|---|---|---|
| Naly | 0.395 | — |
| Polymarket (same events) | 0.205 | — |
Calibration buckets
| Bucket | Predicted avg | Actual frequency | Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40-60% | 55% | 31% | 13 |
| 60-80% | 67% | 29% | 21 |
| 80-100% | 92% | 30% | 10 |
Accuracy by Category
| Category | Resolved | Correct | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| politics | 27 | 7 | 26% |
| geopolitics | 5 | 0 | 0% |
| elections | 5 | 3 | 60% |
| finance | 4 | 2 | 50% |
| stock | 3 | 1 | 33% |
Top Qualified Calls This Month
| Event | Naly top answer | Market top answer | Component score | Resolved | Naly right? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran leadership change by May 31? | Yes (100%) | No (82%) | 82 | No | ✗ |
| Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? | Yes (99%) | No (81%) | 80 | No | ✗ |
| Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by May 31? | Yes (99%) | No (81%) | 80 | No | ✗ |
| Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31, 2026? | Yes (98%) | No (79%) | 77 | No | ✗ |
| Iran leadership change by May 31? | Yes (97%) | No (80%) | 77 | No | ✗ |
Methodology note
This recap only counts resolved predictions where Naly's top answer flipped away from Polymarket's top answer AND the answer-level component score was at least 20 points. Same-side recalibrations and weak flips are tracked separately and excluded from the core scorecard. The pipeline, selection rule, and Brier calculation are described in full at /methodology.
Disclaimer: not financial advice. Prediction markets are real-money instruments with real risk. Read the track record and methodology before trading anything.
