April 2026 resolved 30 qualified calls: Naly 12/30 (40%), Brier 0.297. Calibration and Brier score are updated at /predictions/scorecard; this recap summarises only the answer-flip events with a component score of at least 20 that resolved between April 1 and April-end UTC.
- Qualified resolutions: 30 (Naly 12 correct, Polymarket 18 correct on the same set).
- Brier score: Naly 0.297, Polymarket 0.240. Lower is better; 0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip.
- Best call: Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? — component score 78, Naly top answer "Yes" resolved Yes.
- Worst call: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? — component score 83, Naly top answer "Yes" resolved No.
Brier and Calibration
This month we evaluated 30 qualified answer-flip predictions. Each Brier score below is the mean of (favored-answer probability − actual outcome)².
| Forecaster | Brier | Lower is better |
|---|---|---|
| Naly | 0.297 | — |
| Polymarket (same events) | 0.240 | — |
Calibration buckets
| Bucket | Predicted avg | Actual frequency | Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40-60% | 55% | 13% | 8 |
| 60-80% | 64% | 22% | 9 |
| 80-100% | 96% | 69% | 13 |
Accuracy by Category
| Category | Resolved | Correct | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| stock | 15 | 9 | 60% |
| politics | 11 | 2 | 18% |
| crypto | 2 | 0 | 0% |
| sports | 2 | 1 | 50% |
Top Qualified Calls This Month
| Event | Naly top answer | Market top answer | Component score | Resolved | Naly right? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? | Yes (100%) | No (83%) | 83 | No | ✗ |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? | Yes (99%) | No (79%) | 78 | Yes | ✓ |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? | Yes (100%) | No (76%) | 76 | Yes | ✓ |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? | Yes (99%) | No (73%) | 72 | Yes | ✓ |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? | Yes (98%) | No (73%) | 71 | No | ✗ |
Methodology note
This recap only counts resolved predictions where Naly's top answer flipped away from Polymarket's top answer AND the answer-level component score was at least 20 points. Same-side recalibrations and weak flips are tracked separately and excluded from the core scorecard. The pipeline, selection rule, and Brier calculation are described in full at /methodology.
Disclaimer: not financial advice. Prediction markets are real-money instruments with real risk. Read the track record and methodology before trading anything.
