May 13, 2026 KBO board has 5 same-day Polymarket winner markets after official schedule verification. We rank every game by model-versus-market gap, show the market price, Naly estimate, expected-run read, confidence, and linked news checks. The strongest edge is NC Dinos at 59% against the market baseline.
- The article uses the same mispricing workflow as the finance roundups: market prior, Naly fair value, explicit edge, and a negative-case test for each event.
- NC Dinos is the strongest same-day KBO disagreement at 59% Naly probability and +10 pp versus Polymarket.
- Every matchup section includes its own Polymarket link, official KBO data references, and related news checks.
- Low-confidence edges stay in the article because they are useful for calibration, but they should not be read as strong calls.
5 Mispricings at a Glance
SSG Landers at KT Wiz
Why we disagree: KT Wiz prices at 57% on Polymarket, but the KBO run-environment model lands at 63% after official hitting, pitching, schedule, and news checks (+6 pp).
Hanwha Eagles at Kiwoom Heroes
Why we disagree: Kiwoom Heroes prices at 28% on Polymarket, but the KBO run-environment model lands at 29% after official hitting, pitching, schedule, and news checks (+1 pp).
NC Dinos at Lotte Giants
Why we disagree: NC Dinos prices at 49% on Polymarket, but the KBO run-environment model lands at 59% after official hitting, pitching, schedule, and news checks (+10 pp).
Samsung Lions at LG Twins
Why we disagree: Samsung Lions prices at 51% on Polymarket, but the KBO run-environment model lands at 54% after official hitting, pitching, schedule, and news checks (+3 pp).
Doosan Bears at Kia Tigers
Why we disagree: Doosan Bears prices at 45% on Polymarket, but the KBO run-environment model lands at 51% after official hitting, pitching, schedule, and news checks (+7 pp).
How to read this: Polymarket Top Answer and Naly Top Answer show the final answer each side sees as most likely. Max Payout if Correct shows the gross upside from the current quote to the $1 settlement if the selected contract side wins. The horizontal graph still shows where that selected side sits on a 0c to $1 range for Polymarket versus Naly.
SSG Landers at KT Wiz
KT Wiz prices at 57% on Polymarket, but the KBO run-environment model lands at 63% after official hitting, pitching, schedule, and news checks (+6 pp).
Causal Chain
Key Factors
| Factor | |
|---|---|
| Expected-run read: KT Wiz 5.7, SSG Landers 4.88. | |
| Polymarket implies 57%; Naly estimates 63%, leaving +6 pp of fair-value gap. | |
| Official KBO hitting and pitching tables feed the offensive and run-prevention baseline before news is applied. | |
| News checks used for this matchup: KBO teams scramble to find replacements after multiple foreign ...; SSG Landers Trust Takehata Shota Again as Struggling Pitcher .... |
Bayesian Calculation
Alternative explanation: Polymarket may be correctly pricing starting-pitcher, bullpen, or lineup information that the public KBO team tables and news crawl have not captured yet.
