Election Odds & Predictions 2026
Naly detects where Polymarket misprices election outcomes by comparing market consensus to our Bayesian calibration model. Each article below surfaces the concrete probability gap — and the evidence behind it.
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Election Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 21, 2026
Naly’s May 21, 2026 election roundup features two answer flips against Polymarket. The biggest gap is Colombia, where an outright first-round Cepeda win still looks far less likely than the market implies, while Peru’s runoff appears much closer than Sánchez’s low YES price suggests.
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Election Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 19, 2026
On May 19, 2026, Naly's sharpest election-market fades are Senate passage of a reconciliation bill by May 22 and Choo Kyung-ho in the Daegu mayor race. In both cases, we think Polymarket is underpricing friction: procedural bottlenecks in Washington and candidate-specific volatility in Daegu.