Election Odds & Predictions 2026
Naly detects where Polymarket misprices election outcomes by comparing market consensus to our Bayesian calibration model. Each article below surfaces the concrete probability gap — and the evidence behind it.
Daily Market Mispricings: 1 Political Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — June 29, 2026
On June 29, 2026, Naly’s strongest politics-market disagreement is Elon Musk’s under-40-post contract for the June 27-29 window. We think Polymarket underpriced the effect of an active Senate-bill fight that keeps generating reasons for Musk to post.
Daily Market Mispricings: 1 Election Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — June 28, 2026
Naly’s June 28, 2026 elections roundup has one answer flip: Colorado’s Democratic governor primary. We think Phil Weiser is overpriced at 73c YES because late polling and turnout composition look materially less favorable than the market’s favorite narrative implies.
Daily Market Mispricings: 1 Election Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — June 25, 2026
On June 25, 2026, Naly's top election answer flip is Colorado governor: Polymarket prices Michael Bennet YES at 64c, but Naly marks that side 40c fair and prefers NO at 60%. The core disagreement is about who actually shows up in a late, low-turnout Democratic primary.
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Election Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — June 23, 2026
On June 23, 2026, Naly’s main answer flips versus Polymarket are on another pandemic before GTA VI and GPT-6 before GTA VI. In both cases, we think traders are overpricing vivid narratives and underpricing the lack of direct trigger evidence.
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Political Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — June 1, 2026
Naly sees two answer-flip opportunities on June 1, 2026: Musk's narrow tweet-count band looks too expensive on YES, and the market is too confident that Trump will speak directly with Ursula von der Leyen in June. In both cases, the market appears to be overstating how often plausible setup becomes actual resolution.
Daily Market Mispricings: 1 Political Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 30, 2026
Naly's May 30, 2026 politics roundup contains one clear answer flip: Trump's 120-139 Truth Social post range. We think Polymarket is underpricing how reachable that band already is given the late-May posting cadence.
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Election Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 29, 2026
Naly sees two election answer flips on May 29, 2026: Karen Bass first-place odds in Los Angeles and Caroline Elliott's BC Conservative leadership odds both look materially overstated by Polymarket. In both cases, we think the market is underpricing how much fragmented fields and contest mechanics can scramble a nominal frontrunner.
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Election Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 26, 2026
Naly sees two election answer flips on May 26, 2026: Trump’s weekly 'Dumbocrat' contract looks overpriced on YES, while Oh Se-hoon’s Seoul mayoral contract looks underpriced on YES. In both cases, the latest causal evidence points away from Polymarket’s current extremes.
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Political Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 25, 2026
Naly’s May 25, 2026 politics roundup finds two answer-flip disagreements with Polymarket: Trump speaking to Putin in May and Trump speaking to Zelenskyy in May. In both cases, we think the market underprices how often fragile, leader-driven diplomacy forces one more direct call before month-end.
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Election Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 21, 2026
Naly’s May 21, 2026 election roundup features two answer flips against Polymarket. The biggest gap is Colombia, where an outright first-round Cepeda win still looks far less likely than the market implies, while Peru’s runoff appears much closer than Sánchez’s low YES price suggests.
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Election Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 19, 2026
On May 19, 2026, Naly's sharpest election-market fades are Senate passage of a reconciliation bill by May 22 and Choo Kyung-ho in the Daegu mayor race. In both cases, we think Polymarket is underpricing friction: procedural bottlenecks in Washington and candidate-specific volatility in Daegu.