Fed Rate Cut Odds: Naly vs. Polymarket
The Fed rate cut debate moves markets and prediction markets simultaneously. This hub tracks every FOMC-related Polymarket market where our calibration model diverges from the crowd.
Monthly Prediction Recap: June 2026
June 2026 resolved 44 qualified calls: Naly 13/44 (30%), Brier 0.395.
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Finance Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — June 11, 2026
Naly’s June 11, 2026 finance roundup finds two answer flips versus Polymarket: bullish on SpaceX hitting the low valuation hurdle, and bearish on Stripe reaching its higher threshold without a fresh qualifying mark.
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Finance Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — June 1, 2026
Naly’s June 1, 2026 finance roundup fades both opposite WTI tail bets on Polymarket. We think the market is still overpricing oil volatility even after late-May diplomacy reduced upside panic risk while supply disruption preserved a downside floor.
Daily Market Mispricings: 1 Economy Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 30, 2026
For May 30, 2026, Naly’s main economy disagreement with Polymarket is the Fed rate-cut-by-December-2026 contract. We think the market is too anchored to hot current inflation and is underpricing the probability of one late-year easing move.
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Finance Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 29, 2026
Naly sees two real answer flips in finance markets on May 29, 2026: a likely underpriced WTI contract driven by wording mechanics and an overbid SpaceX $2.0T contract driven by narrative compression. The core lesson is that payout conditions still matter more than headlines.
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Finance Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 27, 2026
On May 27, 2026, Naly's biggest finance answer flips versus Polymarket are Stripe's $165B valuation contract and OpenAI's $800B valuation contract. In both cases, our disagreement comes from fresh valuation evidence already above the thresholds, with benchmark recognition as the main remaining risk.
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Finance Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 24, 2026
Naly sees two answer flips in finance prediction markets on May 24, 2026: natural gas upside is underpriced, while WTI downside is overpriced. The edge in both cases comes from path dependence, not from repeating the market’s headline narrative.
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Economy Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 23, 2026
Naly’s May 23, 2026 economy roundup finds two answer-flip mispricings in Fed cut markets. We think Polymarket is extrapolating an energy-led inflation scare too far forward and underpricing the odds of at least one late-2026 rate cut.
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Finance Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 22, 2026
Naly sees two answer-flip finance mispricings on May 22, 2026: Anduril above $90B and SpaceX above $2T by June 30. In both cases, the market appears to overpay for momentum while underweighting the short time left for a new valuation mark.
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Finance Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 19, 2026
On May 19, 2026, Naly’s biggest finance disagreements with Polymarket are two Strategy bitcoin-sale contracts. We think the market is confusing newly admitted sale optionality with actual sale necessity, even though the latest filings still show outside fundraising, large cash resources, and continued BTC accumulation.
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Finance Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 17, 2026
Naly sees two answer flips in silver on May 17, 2026: Polymarket overprices a May drop to $74 and underprices June settlement inside the $80-$90 band. The key disagreement is timing: after a sharp unwind, silver now looks closer to consolidation than to another immediate extreme.