Fed Rate Cut Odds: Naly vs. Polymarket
The Fed rate cut debate moves markets and prediction markets simultaneously. This hub tracks every FOMC-related Polymarket market where our calibration model diverges from the crowd.
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Finance Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 19, 2026
On May 19, 2026, Naly’s biggest finance disagreements with Polymarket are two Strategy bitcoin-sale contracts. We think the market is confusing newly admitted sale optionality with actual sale necessity, even though the latest filings still show outside fundraising, large cash resources, and continued BTC accumulation.
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Finance Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 17, 2026
Naly sees two answer flips in silver on May 17, 2026: Polymarket overprices a May drop to $74 and underprices June settlement inside the $80-$90 band. The key disagreement is timing: after a sharp unwind, silver now looks closer to consolidation than to another immediate extreme.