Geopolitical Risk Prediction Odds 2026
Geopolitical events are among the hardest prediction market topics to price. This hub surfaces Polymarket markets on trade wars, sanctions, and international conflicts where Naly's Bayesian model disagrees with the current market odds.
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Geopolitical Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 21, 2026
On May 21, 2026, Naly’s two clearest geopolitical answer flips are Israel’s airspace and the U.S. Hormuz blockade. In both cases, we think Polymarket is overpaying for a second dramatic turn instead of the more likely path of slower normalization and prolonged leverage.
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Geopolitical Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 18, 2026
Naly’s May 18, 2026 geopolitical roundup flips both selected June 30 airspace markets from Polymarket’s YES to a higher-probability NO. The core mispricing is that traders appear to be pricing headline tension as if it were already a new formal closure decision.
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Geopolitical Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 16, 2026
Naly’s May 16, 2026 geopolitical roundup flips two Polymarket calls to YES: China’s Boeing purchase announcement and rare-earth export relief. The core thesis is that traders are overweighting headline-form ambiguity even as the underlying policy and commercial substance is already moving.