Geopolitical Risk Prediction Odds 2026
Geopolitical events are among the hardest prediction market topics to price. This hub surfaces Polymarket markets on trade wars, sanctions, and international conflicts where Naly's Bayesian model disagrees with the current market odds.
Daily Market Mispricings: 1 Geopolitical Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — June 27, 2026
On June 27, 2026, Naly's clearest geopolitical disagreement with Polymarket is a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17. We think active mediation channels and deadline pressure make another formal meeting more likely than the market's current YES price implies.
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Geopolitical Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — June 25, 2026
On June 25, 2026, Naly sees two clear geopolitical answer flips versus Polymarket: the US-Iran July 31 meeting market and the Taiwan invasion-before-GTA-VI market. In both cases, traders appear to be overpricing dramatic escalation relative to the slower, more probable causal path shown by fresh official evidence.
Daily Market Mispricings: 1 Geopolitical Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 31, 2026
Naly's May 31, 2026 geopolitical roundup finds one sharp answer flip: the Hormuz-blockade announcement market. We think Polymarket is pricing negotiation headlines too aggressively relative to the still-active blockade and unresolved deal terms.
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Geopolitical Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 26, 2026
Naly sees two answer-flip geopolitical mispricings on May 26, 2026, both tied to whether a reported western Tehran FIR shutdown already qualifies as a major Iranian airspace closure under Polymarket rules. Our edge comes from rule-fit interpretation and causal evidence, not from a generic escalation narrative.
Daily Market Mispricings: 1 Geopolitical Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 23, 2026
On May 23, 2026, Naly’s clearest geopolitical answer flip versus Polymarket is the next U.S.-Iran diplomatic meeting venue. We think Pakistan is materially underpriced because the existing mediation channel creates strong venue continuity unless a credible alternative host emerges.
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Geopolitical Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 21, 2026
On May 21, 2026, Naly’s two clearest geopolitical answer flips are Israel’s airspace and the U.S. Hormuz blockade. In both cases, we think Polymarket is overpaying for a second dramatic turn instead of the more likely path of slower normalization and prolonged leverage.
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Geopolitical Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 18, 2026
Naly’s May 18, 2026 geopolitical roundup flips both selected June 30 airspace markets from Polymarket’s YES to a higher-probability NO. The core mispricing is that traders appear to be pricing headline tension as if it were already a new formal closure decision.
Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Geopolitical Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 16, 2026
Naly’s May 16, 2026 geopolitical roundup flips two Polymarket calls to YES: China’s Boeing purchase announcement and rare-earth export relief. The core thesis is that traders are overweighting headline-form ambiguity even as the underlying policy and commercial substance is already moving.